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Unemployment and Property Crimes in Pakistan


  • Syed Yasir Mahmood Gillani

    (Deputy Director, Planning and Development, Government College University Lahore,Pakistan)

  • Rana Ejaz Ali Khan

    (Head,Department of Management Sciences,COMSATS Institute of Information Technology,Sahiwal,Pakistan)

  • Abid Rashid Gill

    (Lecturer, Department of Economics, The Islamia University of Bahawalpur, Pakistan)


The study examines the relationship between unemployment and property crimes for Pakistan covering the period of 1975 to 2008. The Johansen cointegration methodology along with Granger causality through VEC is applied to the annual time series data. The results of the cointegration analysis provide evidence of a valid long-run relationship between unemployment and different kinds of property crimes. The results provide evidence of unidirectional causality running from unemployed to different kinds of property crimes. The causality results explain that unemployment Granger cause theft, dacoity, robbery and cattle theft while it does not cause burglary.

Suggested Citation

  • Syed Yasir Mahmood Gillani & Rana Ejaz Ali Khan & Abid Rashid Gill, 2011. "Unemployment and Property Crimes in Pakistan," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 1(3), pages 124-133, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:asi:aeafrj:2011:p:124-133

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Christopher A. Pissarides, 2000. "Equilibrium Unemployment Theory, 2nd Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262161877, July.
    2. Nadeem, Azhar Hassan, 2002. "Pakistan: The Political Economy of Lawlessness," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195796216, June.
    3. Levitt, Steven D, 1997. "Using Electoral Cycles in Police Hiring to Estimate the Effect of Police on Crime," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(3), pages 270-290, June.
    4. Raphael, Steven & Winter-Ember, Rudolf, 2001. "Identifying the Effect of Unemployment on Crime," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 44(1), pages 259-283, April.
    5. Ruhm, Christopher J., 1995. "Economic conditions and alcohol problems," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(5), pages 583-603, December.
    6. Entorf, Horst & Spengler, Hannes, 2000. "Socioeconomic and demographic factors of crime in Germany: Evidence from panel data of the German states," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 75-106, March.
    7. Papps, Kerry L. & Winkelmann, Rainer, 1998. "Unemployment and Crime: New Answers to an Old Question," IZA Discussion Papers 25, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    8. Steven D. Levitt, 1996. "The Effect of Prison Population Size on Crime Rates: Evidence from Prison Overcrowding Litigation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 111(2), pages 319-351.
    9. Engelhardt, Bryan & Rocheteau, Guillaume & Rupert, Peter, 2008. "Crime and the labor market: A search model with optimal contracts," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(10-11), pages 1876-1891, October.
    10. Ehrlich, Isaac, 1973. "Participation in Illegitimate Activities: A Theoretical and Empirical Investigation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 521-565, May-June.
    11. Freeman, Richard B., 1999. "The economics of crime," Handbook of Labor Economics,in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 52, pages 3529-3571 Elsevier.
    12. Joanne M. Doyle & Ehsan Ahmed & Robert N. Horn, 1999. "The Effects of Labor Markets and Income Inequality on Crime: Evidence from Panel Data," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 65(4), pages 717-738, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Tahir Mahmood & Amjid Ali & Noureen Akhtar & Muhammad Iqbal & Sadia Qamar & Hafiz Zafar Nazir & Nasir Abbas & Iram Sana, 2014. "Determinants of Unemployment In Pakistan: A Statistical Study," International Journal of Asian Social Science, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 4(12), pages 1163-1175, December.
    2. Ayesha Haider & Amjad Ali, 2015. "Socio-Economic Determinants of Crimes: A Cross-Sectional Study of Punjab Districts," International Journal of Economics and Empirical Research (IJEER), The Economics and Social Development Organization (TESDO), vol. 3(11), pages 550-560, November.

    More about this item


    Crimes; Pakistan; Unemployment; Cointegration; Causality.;

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law


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