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Technical change in Senegal's irrigated rice sector: impact assessment under uncertainty


  • Fisher, Monica G.
  • Masters, William A.
  • Sidibe, Mamadou


This paper addresses the prospects for technical change in the in·igated rice sector of Senegal, and measures ex-ante the economic returns to recent research efforts. In 1994, three new rice varieties were released to farmers in the Senegal River Valley (SRV), the major irrigated rice region in Senegal. The productivity advantage of the new varieties is based primarily on early maturity, which permits double-cropping. (The seeds are also higher yielding than existing cultivars.) We use a conventional [Akino and Hayami (1975), Am. J. Agric. Econ. 57, l-10] partial-equilibrium model adapted to the Senegalese situation, to assess the social benefits of research and compare those to its costs in calculating the internal rate of return (IRR). To account for uncertainty regarding the future values of model variables we use simulation which allows us to generate a distribution of all possible outcomes of the IRR. We find that rice research is almost certain to have a very high payoff over the 1995-2004 period. The expected value of the IRR is calculated to be 121% per year, with a 97.5% probability that it lies above annual capital costs of 18%. © 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Suggested Citation

  • Fisher, Monica G. & Masters, William A. & Sidibe, Mamadou, 2001. "Technical change in Senegal's irrigated rice sector: impact assessment under uncertainty," Agricultural Economics of Agricultural Economists, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 24(2), January.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:iaaeaj:176381

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Reardon, Thomas, 1995. "Sustainability issues for agricultural research strategies in the semi-arid tropics: Focus on the Sahel," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 48(3), pages 345-359.
    2. Evenson, Robert E & Gollin, Douglas, 1997. "Genetic Resources, International Organizations, and Improvement in Rice Varieties," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 45(3), pages 471-500, April.
    3. Saito, K.A. & Spurling, D., 1992. "Developing Agricultural Extension for Women Farmers," World Bank - Discussion Papers 156, World Bank.
    4. Freebairn, Donald K., 1995. "Did the Green Revolution Concentrate Incomes? A Quantitative Study of Research Reports," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 265-279, February.
    5. Le Gal, Pierre-Yves & Papy, Francois, 1998. "Co-ordination processes in a collectively managed cropping system: Double cropping of irrigated rice in Senegal," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 57(2), pages 135-159, June.
    6. Flores-Moya, Piedad & Evenson, Robert E & Hayami, Yujiro, 1978. "Social Returns to Rice Research in the Philippines: Domestic Benefits and Foreign Spillover," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 26(3), pages 591-607, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Dalton, Timothy J. & Guei, Robert G., 2003. "Productivity Gains from Rice Genetic Enhancements in West Africa: Countries and Ecologies," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 359-374, February.


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