Technical change in Senegal's irrigated rice sector: impact assessment under uncertainty
This paper addresses the prospects for technical change in the in·igated rice sector of Senegal, and measures ex-ante the economic returns to recent research efforts. In 1994, three new rice varieties were released to farmers in the Senegal River Valley (SRV), the major irrigated rice region in Senegal. The productivity advantage of the new varieties is based primarily on early maturity, which permits double-cropping. (The seeds are also higher yielding than existing cultivars.) We use a conventional [Akino and Hayami (1975), Am. J. Agric. Econ. 57, l-10] partial-equilibrium model adapted to the Senegalese situation, to assess the social benefits of research and compare those to its costs in calculating the internal rate of return (IRR). To account for uncertainty regarding the future values of model variables we use simulation which allows us to generate a distribution of all possible outcomes of the IRR. We find that rice research is almost certain to have a very high payoff over the 1995-2004 period. The expected value of the IRR is calculated to be 121% per year, with a 97.5% probability that it lies above annual capital costs of 18%. © 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.
Volume (Year): 24 (2001)
Issue (Month): 2 (January)
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.iaae-agecon.org/|
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Flores-Moya, Piedad & Evenson, Robert E & Hayami, Yujiro, 1978. "Social Returns to Rice Research in the Philippines: Domestic Benefits and Foreign Spillover," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 26(3), pages 591-607, April.
- Evenson, Robert E & Gollin, Douglas, 1997.
"Genetic Resources, International Organizations, and Improvement in Rice Varieties,"
Economic Development and Cultural Change,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 45(3), pages 471-500, April.
- Evenson, R.E. & Gollin, D., 1994. "Genetic Resources, International Organizations, and the Rice Varietal Improvement," Papers 713, Yale - Economic Growth Center.
- Le Gal, Pierre-Yves & Papy, Francois, 1998. "Co-ordination processes in a collectively managed cropping system: Double cropping of irrigated rice in Senegal," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 57(2), pages 135-159, June.
- Reardon, Thomas, 1995. "Sustainability issues for agricultural research strategies in the semi-arid tropics: Focus on the Sahel," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 48(3), pages 345-359.
- Saito, K.A. & Spurling, D., 1992. "Developing Agricultural Extension for Women Farmers," World Bank - Discussion Papers 156, World Bank.
- Freebairn, Donald K., 1995. "Did the Green Revolution Concentrate Incomes? A Quantitative Study of Research Reports," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 265-279, February.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:iaaeaj:176381. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (AgEcon Search)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.