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The causal relationship between Foreign Direct Investment and Current Account: an empirical investigation for Pakistan economy

  • Danish Ahmed SIDDIQUI

    (Karachi University Business School, University of Karachi, Pakistan)

  • Mohsin Hasnain AHMAD

    (Applied Economics Research Centre, University of Karachi, Pakistan)

  • Muhammad ASIM

    (Karachi University Business School, University of Karachi, Pakistan)

This paper investigates relationship between FDI and current account (CA) in Pakistan using the Johansen-Juselius cointegration technique and the Granger causality test. The study results indicate that FDI and CA are cointegrated and thus exhibit a reliable long run relationship. The Granger causality test findings indicate that the causality between FDI and CA is uni-directional. However, there is no short run causality from FDI to CA and vice versa. Therefore, as a policy implication that FDI inflows may cause to the deterioration of the balance of payments in the long run should be taken into account when policy makers decide to implement policies to attract foreign investors.

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Article provided by Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER in its journal Theoretical and Applied Economics.

Volume (Year): XVIII(2013) (2013)
Issue (Month): 8(585) (August)
Pages: 91-106

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Handle: RePEc:agr:journl:v:8(585):y:2013:i:8(585):p:91-106
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  1. Ghosh, Atish R & Ostry, Jonathan D, 1995. "The Current Account in Developing Countries: A Perspective from the Consumption-Smoothing Approach," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 9(2), pages 305-33, May.
  2. Fry, Maxwell J. & Claessens,Constantijn A. & Burridge, Peter & Blanchet, Marie-Christine, 1995. "Foreign direct investment, other capital flows, and current account deficits : what causes what?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1527, The World Bank.
  3. Premachandra Athukorala & Jayant Menon, 1995. "Developing with Foreign Investment: Malaysia," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 28(1), pages 9-22.
  4. Atish R. Ghosh & Jonathan David Ostry, 1993. "Do Capital Flows Reflect Economic Fundamentals in Developing Countries?," IMF Working Papers 93/34, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Chuhan, Punam & Perez-Quiros, Gabriel & Popper, Helen, 1996. "International capital flows : do short-term investment and direct investment differ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1669, The World Bank.
  6. Manuel R. AGOSIN & Ricardo MAYER, 2000. "Foreign Investment In Developing Countries, Does It Crowd In Domestic Investment?," UNCTAD Discussion Papers 146, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
  7. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
  8. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
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