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Désinflation et chômage dans la zone euro : une analyse à l’aide d’un modèle var structurel

  • Patrick FEVE
  • Julien MATHERON
  • Guillaume SAHUC

The present paper investigates the dynamic effects of disinflation shocks for a number of real macroeconomic variables in the euro area. Using structural VARs, we identify disinflation shocks as the only shocks that can exert a long—run effect on inflation as well as other nominal variables cointegrating with inflation. These shocks are found to generate large recessionary effects, notably when it comes to investment, and triggers a persistent rise in unemployment and in the real interest rate. The analysis is complemented by computing inefficiency measures on goods and labor markets. We show that, after a disinflation shock, inefficiencies in the labor market seem to prevail. These conclusions are robust to modifications of our baseline identification scheme.

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Article provided by ENSAE in its journal Annals of Economics and Statistics.

Volume (Year): (2010)
Issue (Month): 99-100 ()
Pages: 365-394

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Handle: RePEc:adr:anecst:y:2010:i:99-100:p:15
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