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Get Training or Wait? Long-Run Employment Effects of Training Programs for the Unemployed in West Germany

  • Bernd FITZENBERGER
  • Aderonke OSIKOMINU
  • Robert VÖLTER

Long-term public sector sponsored training programs often show little or negative short-run employment effects and often it is not possible to assess whether positive long-run effects exist. Based on unique administrative data, this paper estimates the long-run differential employment effects of three different types of training programs in West Germany. We use inflows into unemployment for the years 1986/87 and 1993/94 and apply local linear matching based on the estimated propensity score to estimate the effects of training programs starting during quarters 1 to 2, 3 to 4, and 5 to 8 of unemployment. The results show a negative lock-in effect for the period right after the beginning of the programs and significantly positive treatment effects on employment rates in the medium and long run. The differential effects of the three programs compared to one another are mainly driven by differences in the length of the lock-in periods.

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Article provided by ENSAE in its journal Annals of Economics and Statistics.

Volume (Year): (2008)
Issue (Month): 91-92 ()
Pages: 321-355

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Handle: RePEc:adr:anecst:y:2008:i:91-92:p:15
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  1. Fredriksson, Peter & Johansson, Per, 2002. "Program Evaluation and Random Program Starts," Working Paper Series 2003:1, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
  2. Jochen Kluve & Christoph M. Schmidt, 2002. "Can training and employment subsidies combat European unemployment?," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 17(35), pages 409-448, October.
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  6. Hidehiko Ichimura & Oliver Linton, 2001. "Asymptotic expansions for some semiparametric program evaluation estimators," CeMMAP working papers CWP04/01, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
  7. Lechner, Michael & Miquel, Ruth & Wunsch, Conny, 2005. "Long-run effects of public sector sponsored training in West Germany," IAB Discussion Paper 200503, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
  8. Martin, John P. & Grubb, David, 2001. "What works and for whom: a review of OECD countries' experiences with active labour market policies," Working Paper Series 2001:14, IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy.
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  10. James Heckman & Hidehiko Ichimura & Jeffrey Smith & Petra Todd, 1998. "Characterizing Selection Bias Using Experimental Data," NBER Working Papers 6699, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  14. Lechner, Michael, 1996. "An Evaluation of Public Sector Sponsored Continuous Vocational Training Programs in East Germany," Discussion Papers 539, Institut fuer Volkswirtschaftslehre und Statistik, Abteilung fuer Volkswirtschaftslehre.
  15. Racine, Jeff & Li, Qi, 2004. "Nonparametric estimation of regression functions with both categorical and continuous data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 119(1), pages 99-130, March.
  16. Lechner, Michael, 2004. "Sequential Matching Estimation of Dynamic Causal Models," IZA Discussion Papers 1042, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
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