Ex Ante Evaluation of Social Programs
This paper discusses methods for evaluating the impacts of social programs prior to their implementation. Ex ante evaluation is useful for designing programs that achieve some optimality criteria, such as maximizing impact for a given cost. This paper illustrates the use of behavioral models in predicting the impacts of hypothetical programs in a way that is not functional form dependent. The programs considered are programs that operate by affecting the budget constraint, such as wage subsidy programs, conditional cash transfer programs, and income support programs. In some cases, the behavioral model justifies a completely nonparametric estimation strategy, even when there is no direct variation in the policy instrument. In other cases, stronger assumptions are required to evaluate a program ex ante. We illustrate the application of ex ante evaluation methods using data from the PROGRESA school subsidy randomized experiment in Mexico. We assess the effectiveness of the ex ante prediction method by comparing predictions of program impacts to the impacts measured under the randomized experiment. The subsamples pertain to girls and boys aged 12-15. For the girls, the predicted impacts are fairly similar to the actual impacts, both in magnitude and in replicating the age patterns, with larger impacts observed at higher ages. For boys, the predicted impacts tend to overstate the actual impacts. The ex-ante evaluation method is also used to predict the effects of counterfactual programs that include changes to the subsidy schedule and an unconditional income transfer.
Volume (Year): (2008)
Issue (Month): 91-92 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://annales.ensae.fr/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- McFadden, Daniel L., 1984. "Econometric analysis of qualitative response models," Handbook of Econometrics, in: Z. Griliches† & M. D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 24, pages 1395-1457 Elsevier.
- Hardle, W., 1992.
"Applied Nonparametric Methods,"
9206, Tilburg - Center for Economic Research.
- Härdle, W.K., 1992. "Applied Nonparametric Methods," Discussion Paper 1992-6, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
- Hardle, W., 1992. "Applied Nonparametric Methods," Papers 9204, Catholique de Louvain - Institut de statistique.
- Wolfgang Hardle & Oliver Linton, 1994. "Applied Nonparametric Methods," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1069, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- HÃ„RDLE, Wolfgang, 1992. "Applied nonparametric methods," CORE Discussion Papers 1992003, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
- Terry R. Johnson & John Pencavel, 1982. "Forecasting the effects of a negative income tax program," Industrial and Labor Relations Review, ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 35(2), pages 221-234, January.
- Jeremy Lise & Shannon Seitz & Jeffrey Smith, 2003.
"Equilibrium Policy Experiments and the Evaluation of Social Programs,"
1012, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
- Jeremy Lise & Shannon Seitz & Jeffrey Smith, 2005. "Equilibrium Policy Experiments and the Evaluation of Social Programs," Working Papers 1076, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
- Lise, Jeremy & Seitz, Shannon & Smith, Jeffrey A., 2003. "Equilibrium Policy Experiments and the Evaluation of Social Programs," IZA Discussion Papers 758, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Jeremy Lise & Shannon Seitz & Jeffrey Smith, 2004. "Equilibrium Policy Experiments and the Evaluation of Social Programs," NBER Working Papers 10283, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jeremy Lise & Shannon Seitz & Jeffrey Smith, 2003. "Equilibrium Policy Experiments and the Evaluation of Social Programs," University of Western Ontario, CIBC Centre for Human Capital and Productivity Working Papers 20032, University of Western Ontario, CIBC Centre for Human Capital and Productivity.
- James J. Heckman, 2001. "Micro Data, Heterogeneity, and the Evaluation of Public Policy: Nobel Lecture," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 109(4), pages 673-748, August.
- Heckman, James & Singer, Burton, 1984. "A Method for Minimizing the Impact of Distributional Assumptions in Econometric Models for Duration Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(2), pages 271-320, March.
- Manski, Charles F., 1975. "Maximum score estimation of the stochastic utility model of choice," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 205-228, August.
- Hidehiko Ichimura & Christopher Taber, 2002.
"Semiparametric Reduced-Form Estimation of Tuition Subsidies,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 92(2), pages 286-292, May.
- Hidehiko Ichimura & Christopher Taber, 2002. "Semiparametric reduced form estimation of tuition subsidies," CeMMAP working papers CWP01/02, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
- Hidehiko Ichimura & Christopher R. Taber, 2000.
"Direct Estimation of Policy Impacts,"
NBER Technical Working Papers
0254, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Oliver LINTON, .
"Applied nonparametric methods,"
Statistic und Oekonometrie
9312, Humboldt Universitaet Berlin.
- James J. Heckman, 2000.
"Causal Parameters And Policy Analysis In Economics: A Twentieth Century Retrospective,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
MIT Press, vol. 115(1), pages 45-97, February.
- James L. Heckman, 1999. "Causal Parameters and Policy Analysis in Economcs: A Twentieth Century Retrospective," NBER Working Papers 7333, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Behrman, Jere R & Sengupta, Piyali & Todd, Petra, 2005. "Progressing through PROGRESA: An Impact Assessment of a School Subsidy Experiment in Rural Mexico," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 54(1), pages 237-75, October.
- Robin L. Lumsdaine & James H. Stock & David A. Wise, 1992. "Pension Plan Provisions and Retirement: Men & Women, Medicare, and Models," NBER Working Papers 4201, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Manski, Charles F., 1986. "Semiparametric analysis of binary response from response-based samples," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 31-40, February.
- Andrews, Donald W K & Schafgans, Marcia M A, 1998. "Semiparametric Estimation of the Intercept of a Sample Selection Model," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 65(3), pages 497-517, July.
- LaLonde, Robert J, 1986. "Evaluating the Econometric Evaluations of Training Programs with Experimental Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(4), pages 604-20, September.
- Heckman, James J & Ichimura, Hidehiko & Todd, Petra, 1998. "Matching as an Econometric Evaluation Estimator," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 65(2), pages 261-94, April.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:adr:anecst:y:2008:i:91-92:p:13. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Robert Gary-Bobo)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.