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Deutsche Wirtschaft in der Rezession?

Author

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  • Ademmer, Martin
  • Jannsen, Nils
  • Kooths, Stefan
  • Wolters, Maik H.

Abstract

Die Konjunktur in Deutschland hat sich seit Beginn des Jahres 2018 deutlich abgeschwächt. Aktuell deu-ten die Frühindikatoren darauf hin, dass sich diese Entwicklung in der zweiten Jahreshälfte fortsetzen wird. Vor diesem Hintergrund stellt sich die Frage, ob sich die deutsche Wirtschaft mittlerweile in einer Rezes-sion befindet. Allerdings liegen unterschiedliche gängige Definitionen für Rezessionen vor, die - auch wenn sie sich in vielen Fällen überlappen - teils zu unterschiedlichen Diagnosen führen können.

Suggested Citation

  • Ademmer, Martin & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan & Wolters, Maik H., 2019. "Deutsche Wirtschaft in der Rezession?," Kiel Insight 2019.10, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwbox:201910
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Carstensen, Kai & Heinrich, Markus & Reif, Magnus & Wolters, Maik H., 2020. "Predicting ordinary and severe recessions with a three-state Markov-switching dynamic factor model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 829-850.
    2. Heinrich, Markus & Carstensen, Kai & Reif, Magnus & Wolters, Maik, 2017. "Predicting Ordinary and Severe Recessions with a Three-State Markov-Switching Dynamic Factor Model. An Application to the German Business Cycle," VfS Annual Conference 2017 (Vienna): Alternative Structures for Money and Banking 168206, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    3. Ademmer, Martin & Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Carstensen, Kai & Hauber, Philipp & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan & Rossian, Thies & Stolzenburg, Ulrich, 2019. "Schätzung von Produktionspotenzial und -lücke: Eine Analyse des EU-Verfahrens und mögliche Verbesserungen," Kieler Beiträge zur Wirtschaftspolitik 19, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    4. Ademmer, Martin, 2018. "Vergleich der Produktionslückenschätzung mit der anderer Institutionen und alternativer Modelle," Kiel Insight 2018.7, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
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