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Thresholds for Employment and Unemployment - a Spatial Analysis of German Regional Labour Markets 1992-2000

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  • Reinhold Kosfeld
  • Christian Dreger

Abstract

Changes in production and employment are closely related over the course of the business cycle. However, as exemplified by the laws of Verdoorn (1949, 1993) and Okun (1962, 1970), thresholds seem to be present in the relationship. Due to capacity reserves of the firms, output growth must exceed certain levels for the creation of new jobs or a fall in the unemployment rate. While Verdoorn's law focuses on the growth rate of output sufficient for an increase in employment, in Okun's law, the fall in the unemployment rate becomes the focus of attention. In order to assess the future development of employment and unemployment, these thresholds have to be taken into account. They serve as important guidelines for policymakers. In contrast to previous studies, we present joint estimates for both the employment and unemployment threshold. Due to demographic patterns and institutional settings on the labour market, the two thresholds can differ, implying that minimum output growth needed for a rise in employment may not be sufficient for a simultaneous drop in the unemployment rate. Second, regional information is considered to a large extent. In particular, the analysis is carried out using a sample of 180 German regional labour markets, see Eckey (2001). Since the cross-sections are separated by the flows of job commuters, they correspond to travel-to-work areas. Labour mobility is high within a market, but low among the entities. As the sectoral decomposition of economic activities varies across the regions, the thresholds are founded on a heterogeneous experience, leading to more reliable estimates.The contribution to the literature is twofold. First, to the best of our knowledge, no previous paper has investigated a similar broad regional dataset for the German economy as a whole before. By using a panel dataset, information on the regional distributions around the regression lines as well as theirs positional changes is provided for each year. Second, the methods applied are of new type. They involve a mixture of pooled and spatial econometric techniques. Dependencies across the regions may result from common or idiosyncratic (region specific) shocks. In particular, the eigenfunction decomposition approach suggested by Griffith (1996, 2000) is used to identify spatial and non-spatial components in regression analysis. As the spatial pattern may vary over time, inference is conducted on the base of a spatial SUR model. Due to this setting, efficient estimates of the thresholds are obtained. With the aid of a geographic information system (GIS) variation of the spatial components can be made transparent. With Verdoorn’s and Okun’s law the figures show some significant patterns become obvious over time. In respect to Verdoorn’s law, for instance, a stripe of high values in the north-western part from Schleswig-Holstein via Lower Saxony and North Rhine Westfalia to Rhineland Palatinate is striking in all years but 1994 and 1995. In most periods the spatial component is likewise concentrated in Saxony. Clusters of low values can be found in northern Bavaria and, in some periods, in Thüringen and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern. Other parts of Germany appear to be more fragmented consisting of relative small clusters of low, medium and high values of the spatial component. With Okun’s law some changing spatial patterns arise. In all, spatially filtering provides valuable insights into the spatial dimensions of the laws of Verdoorn and Okun. Threshold employment and unemployment, regional labour markets, spatial filtering techniques, spatial SUR analysis

Suggested Citation

  • Reinhold Kosfeld & Christian Dreger, 2005. "Thresholds for Employment and Unemployment - a Spatial Analysis of German Regional Labour Markets 1992-2000," ERSA conference papers ersa05p39, European Regional Science Association.
  • Handle: RePEc:wiw:wiwrsa:ersa05p39
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    1. Roberto Patuelli & Norbert Schanne & Daniel A. Griffith & Peter Nijkamp, 2012. "Persistence Of Regional Unemployment: Application Of A Spatial Filtering Approach To Local Labor Markets In Germany," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 52(2), pages 300-323, May.
    2. Martinho, Vítor João Pereira Domingues, 2011. "What the keynesian theory said about Portugal?," MPRA Paper 32610, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Guisinger, Amy Y. & Hernandez-Murillo, Ruben & Owyang, Michael T. & Sinclair, Tara M., 2018. "A state-level analysis of Okun's law," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 239-248.
    4. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Pape, Markus, 2011. "More than just one labor market cycle in Germany? : an analysis of regional unemployment data," Zeitschrift für ArbeitsmarktForschung - Journal for Labour Market Research, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany], vol. 44(3), pages 279-292.
    5. Nikolay Kaledin, 2013. "Societal geography and regionalization of society," ERSA conference papers ersa13p1334, European Regional Science Association.
    6. Herwartz, Helmut & Niebuhr, Annekatrin, 2011. "Regional labor demand and national labor market institutions in the EU15," HWWI Research Papers 112, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI).
    7. Roberto Patuelli & Daniel A. Griffith & Michael Tiefelsdorf & Peter Nijkamp, 2011. "Spatial Filtering and Eigenvector Stability: Space-Time Models for German Unemployment Data," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 34(2), pages 253-280, April.
    8. Buendía Azorín, José Daniel & Sánchez de la Vega, María del Mar, 2017. "Output growth thresholds for the creation of employment and the reduction of unemployment: A spatial analysis with panel data from the Spanish provinces, 2000–2011," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 42-49.
    9. Buendía Azorín, José Daniel. & Sánchez De La Vega, Mª Del Mar, 2017. "Estimación del valor añadido bruto, dependencia espacial y datos de panel: Evidencia en el caso de los municipios de la Región de Murcia /Estimation of Gross Value Added, Spatial Dependence and Panel ," Estudios de Economia Aplicada, Estudios de Economia Aplicada, vol. 35, pages 315-340, Mayo.
    10. Ulrich Zierahn, 2012. "The importance of spatial autocorrelation for regional employment growth in Germany," Review of Regional Research: Jahrbuch für Regionalwissenschaft, Springer;Gesellschaft für Regionalforschung (GfR), vol. 32(1), pages 19-43, March.
    11. Hans-Friedrich Eckey & Reinhold Kosfeld & Matthias Türck, 2007. "Regionale Entwicklung mit und ohne räumliche Spillover-Effekte," Review of Regional Research: Jahrbuch für Regionalwissenschaft, Springer;Gesellschaft für Regionalforschung (GfR), vol. 27(1), pages 23-42, February.
    12. Francisco Javier Escribá-Pérez & María José Murgui-García, 2018. "Technology catching-up and regulation in European regions," Journal of Productivity Analysis, Springer, vol. 49(1), pages 95-109, February.
    13. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Pape, Markus, 2011. "More than just one labor market cycle in Germany? : an analysis of regional unemployment data," Zeitschrift für ArbeitsmarktForschung - Journal for Labour Market Research, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany], vol. 44(3), pages 279-292.
    14. Helmut Herwartz & Annekatrin Niebuhr, 2017. "Regional Labor Market Performance in Europe," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 40(3), pages 270-296, May.
    15. Eckey, Hans-Friedrich & Döring, Thomas & Türck, Matthias, 2006. "Convergence of regions from 23 EU member states," Volkswirtschaftliche Diskussionsbeiträge 86, University of Kassel, Faculty of Economics and Management.
    16. Celia Melguizo, 2017. "An analysis of Okun’s law for the Spanish provinces," Review of Regional Research: Jahrbuch für Regionalwissenschaft, Springer;Gesellschaft für Regionalforschung (GfR), vol. 37(1), pages 59-90, February.
    17. Phiri, Andrew, 2014. "Re-evaluating Okun's law in South Africa: A nonlinear co-integration approach," MPRA Paper 57398, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. López-Hernández, Fernando A., 2013. "Second-order polynomial spatial error model. Global and local spatial dependence in unemployment in Andalusia," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 270-279.
    19. Elhorst, J. Paul & Emili, Silvia, 2022. "A spatial econometric multivariate model of Okun's law," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    20. Marta Yánez Contreras & Marta Yánez Contreras, 2010. "El mercado laboral desde una perspectiva espacial," Apuntes del Cenes, Universidad Pedagógica y Tecnológica de Colombia, September.
    21. Jorge Chica‐Olmo & Marina Checa‐Olivas, 2021. "Spatial impact of factors influencing the achievement of the Europa2020 employment targets," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 100(3), pages 633-649, June.

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