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Modeling and Policy Analysis for the U.S. Science Sector

Author

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  • Jacques Kibambe Ngoie

    (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria)

  • Arnold Zellner

    (Booth School of Business, University of Chicago)

Abstract

This paper analyzes the production process of scientific outputs and its implications on the U.S. economy using variants of a disaggregated Marshallian Macroeconomic Model (MMM). Federal spending on scientific activities produces innovation which we measure using the number of patents awarded. Additionally, this study makes use of the Bass diffusion model to investigate how innovative patents generate new products that attract new firms in existing sectors of the U.S. economy. Firms are assumed to be Bayesian learners while forming expectations about product prices. Using a set of policy simulations, this research provides measured information on how selected science policies may affect sectoral growth of the U.S. economy. Moreover, issues such as bifurcation pertaining to dynamic models are thoroughly addressed in this paper. Among others, our findings suggest that federal spending on applied research has larger shortrun growth enhancement effects than spending on development or basic research. The return of current federal spending on applied research depends largely on past spending on basic research, something that is well captured through the lag structure imposed in our model. Recipients of federal grants for basic research often lay foundation for outstanding applied research.

Suggested Citation

  • Jacques Kibambe Ngoie & Arnold Zellner, 2012. "Modeling and Policy Analysis for the U.S. Science Sector," Working Papers 201207, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:pre:wpaper:201207
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. repec:fth:harver:1473 is not listed on IDEAS
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Disaggregated Marshallian Macroeconomic Model; Bass Diffusion Model; Transfer Functions; and Bayesian Learners;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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