IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/91519.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Is inflation targeting compatible with economic growth ? Korean experience based on ARDL and NARDL

Author

Listed:
  • Affendi, Diyana Najwa
  • Masih, Mansur

Abstract

The relationship between inflation and growth has been one of the most widely researched topics in economics. Studies have shown various outcomes, deeming positive, negative and non-existence of relationship between the two macroeconomic variables, and the result varies among the areas of study. The complex dynamics between inflation and growth has made it difficult for policy makers to comprehend whether inflation targeting policy will result in favourable or adverse effect to the economic growth. This paper aims to study the relationship between inflation and economic growth in South Korea, one of the fastest growing economies in Asia. Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be used as an indicator for inflation and GDP by market price is used to represent the economic growth. Using the recent time series techniques, ARDL and NARDL, the study seeks to find the long-term relationship and causality between the two variables. Based on the results, it is found that inflation is exogenous, while GDP is endogenous. The relationship between inflation and GDP is also found to be asymmetric in the long run. The policy implication of this study is that the central bank of Korea should not adopt inflation targeting policy while having the objective of boosting the GDP in mind since they are conflicting macroeconomic objectives. Instead, inflation targeting policy should be applied mainly to focus on keeping the price stability.

Suggested Citation

  • Affendi, Diyana Najwa & Masih, Mansur, 2018. "Is inflation targeting compatible with economic growth ? Korean experience based on ARDL and NARDL," MPRA Paper 91519, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:91519
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/91519/1/MPRA_paper_91519.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Saaed, A.A.J., 2007. "Inflation and Economic Growth in Kuwait: 1985-2005. Evidence from Co-Integration and Error Correction Model," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 7(1).
    2. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    3. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    4. Robin C. Sickles & William C. Horrace (ed.), 2014. "Festschrift in Honor of Peter Schmidt," Springer Books, Springer, edition 127, number 978-1-4899-8008-3, June.
    5. João R. Faria & Francisco Galrão Carneiro, 2001. "Does High Inflation Affect Growth in the Long and Short Run?," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 4, pages 89-105, May.
    6. Yasir Ali Mubarik, 2005. "Inflation and Growth: An Estimate of the Threshold Level of Inflation in Pakistan," SBP Working Paper Series 08, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department.
    7. Soyoung Kim & Yung Chul Park, 2006. "Inflation targeting in Korea: a model of success?," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Monetary policy in Asia: approaches and implementation, volume 31, pages 140-164, Bank for International Settlements.
    8. Yasir Ali Mubarik, 2005. "Inflation and Growth: An Estimate of the Threshold Level of Inflation in Pakistan," SBP Research Bulletin, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department, vol. 1, pages 35-44.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Saaed, A.A.J., 2007. "Inflation and Economic Growth in Kuwait: 1985-2005. Evidence from Co-Integration and Error Correction Model," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 7(1).
    2. Md. Sharif Hossain & Md. Thasinul Abedin, 2016. "Multivariate Dynamic Co-integration and Causality Analysis between Inflation and its Determinants," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 8(5), pages 240-250.
    3. Jaganath Behera & Alok Kumar Mishra, 2017. "The Recent Inflation Crisis and Long-run Economic Growth in India: An Empirical Survey of Threshold Level of Inflation," South Asian Journal of Macroeconomics and Public Finance, , vol. 6(1), pages 105-132, June.
    4. Jaganath Behera & Alok Kumar Mishra, 2016. "Inflation and Economic Growth Nexus in BRICS: Evidence from ARDL Bound Testing Approach," Asian Journal of Economic Modelling, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 4(1), pages 1-17, March.
    5. Nicas Yabu & Nicholaus J. Kessy, 2015. "Appropriate Threshold Level of Inflation for Economic Growth: Evidence from the Three Founding EAC Countries," Applied Economics and Finance, Redfame publishing, vol. 2(3), pages 127-144, August.
    6. repec:asi:ajoerj:2013:p:363-380 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Shamim Ahmed & M. Golam Mortaza, 2010. "Inflation and Economic Growth in Bangladesh: 1981-2005," Working Papers id:3033, eSocialSciences.
    8. Asaduzzaman, Md, 2021. "Relationship between threshold level of inflation and economic growth in Bangladesh- a multivariate quadratic regression analysis," MPRA Paper 110333, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 02 Feb 2021.
    9. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Hoang, Thi Hong Van & Mahalik, Mantu Kumar & Roubaud, David, 2017. "Energy consumption, financial development and economic growth in India: New evidence from a nonlinear and asymmetric analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 199-212.
    10. Ingrid Groessl & Artur Tarassow, 2015. "A Microfounded Model of Money Demand Under Uncertainty, and some Empirical Evidence," Macroeconomics and Finance Series 201504, University of Hamburg, Department of Socioeconomics, revised Jan 2018.
    11. Shawkat Hammoudeh & Walid Mensi & Jin Seo Cho, 2022. "Spillovers between exchange rate pressure and CDS bid-ask spreads, reserve assets and oil prices using the quantile ARDL model," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 170, pages 66-78.
    12. Luqman, Muhammad & Ahmad, Najid & Bakhsh, Khuda, 2019. "Nuclear energy, renewable energy and economic growth in Pakistan: Evidence from non-linear autoregressive distributed lag model," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 1299-1309.
    13. Adewuyi, Adeolu O. & Ogebe, Joseph O., 2019. "The validity of uncovered interest parity: Evidence from african members and non-member of the organisation of petroleum exporting countries (OPEC)," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 229-249.
    14. Arif Khan & Gul Zeb Chaudhary, 2020. "Determinants Of Inflation In Case Of Pakistan," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 9(4), pages 151-161, December.
    15. Waseem Khadim & Saddam Ilyas & Bilal Mehmood, 2016. "Of Inflation and Growth Nexus in BRIMC Economies," International Journal of Economics and Empirical Research (IJEER), The Economics and Social Development Organization (TESDO), vol. 4(1), pages 32-45, January.
    16. Adnen Ben Nasr & Juncal Cunado & Rıza Demirer & Rangan Gupta, 2018. "Country Risk Ratings and Stock Market Returns in Brazil, Russia, India, and China (BRICS) Countries: A Nonlinear Dynamic Approach," Risks, MDPI, vol. 6(3), pages 1-22, September.
    17. Farhani, Sahbi & Solarin, Sakiru Adebola, 2017. "Financial development and energy demand in the United States: New evidence from combined cointegration and asymmetric causality tests," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 1029-1037.
    18. Rangan Gupta & Amine Lahiani & Chi-Chuan Lee & Chien-Chiang Lee, 2019. "Asymmetric dynamics of insurance premium: the impacts of output and economic policy uncertainty," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 57(6), pages 1959-1978, December.
    19. Mothuti Gosego & Phiri Andrew, 2018. "Inflation-Growth Nexus in Botswana: Can Lower Inflation Really Spur Growth in the Country?," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 18(4), pages 1-11, December.
    20. Quan-Hoang Vuong & Manh-Tung Ho & Hong-Kong To Nguyen & Minh-Hoang Nguyen, 2019. "The trilemma of sustainable industrial growth: evidence from a piloting OECD’s Green city," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 5(1), pages 1-14, December.
    21. Abdul Jalil & Samia Manan & Sundus Saleemi, 2016. "Estimating the growth effects of services sector: a cointegration analysis for Pakistan," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 5(1), pages 1-14, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation; Economic growth; ARDL; NARDL;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:91519. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.