IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/9262.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Determinants of Real House Price Dynamics

Author

Listed:
  • Dennis R. Capozza
  • Patric H. Hendershott
  • Charlotte Mack
  • Christopher J. Mayer

Abstract

We explore the dynamics of real house prices by estimating serial correlation and mean reversion coefficients from a panel data set of 62 metro areas from 1979-1995. The serial correlation and reversion parameters are then shown to vary cross sectionally with city size, real income growth, population growth, and real construction costs. Serial correlation is higher in metro areas with higher real income, population growth and real construction costs. Mean reversion is greater in large metro areas and faster-growing cities with lower construction costs. Empirically, substantial overshooting of prices can occur in high real construction cost areas, which have high serial correlation and low mean reversion, such as the coastal cities of Boston, New York, San Francisco, Los Angeles and San Diego.

Suggested Citation

  • Dennis R. Capozza & Patric H. Hendershott & Charlotte Mack & Christopher J. Mayer, 2002. "Determinants of Real House Price Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 9262, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:9262
    Note: PE
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w9262.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dennis R. Capozza & Dick Kazarian & Thomas A. Thomson, 1997. "Mortgage Default in Local Markets," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 25(4), pages 631-655, December.
    2. Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller, 1988. "The behavior of home buyers in boom and post-boom markets," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Nov, pages 29-46.
    3. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Lawrence F. Katz, 1992. "Regional Evolutions," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 23(1), pages 1-76.
    4. Chiang, Raymond & Davidson, Ian & Okunev, John, 1997. "Some further theoretical and empirical implications regarding the relationship between earnings, dividends and stock prices," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 17-35, January.
    5. Capozza, Dennis R. & Helsley, Robert W., 1989. "The fundamentals of land prices and urban growth," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 295-306, November.
    6. Capozza, Dennis R. & Seguin, Paul J., 1996. "Expectations, efficiency, and euphoria in the housing market," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3-4), pages 369-386, June.
    7. Capozza Dennis R. & Sick Gordon A., 1994. "The Risk Structure of Land Markets," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 297-319, May.
    8. Richard K. Green & Patric H. Hendershott & Dennis R. Capozza, 1996. "Taxes, Mortgage Borrowing and House Prices," Wisconsin-Madison CULER working papers 96-06, University of Wisconsin Center for Urban Land Economic Research.
    9. Steven C. Bourassa & Patric H. Hendershott & James Murphy, 2001. "Further evidence on the existence of housing market bubbles," Journal of Property Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(1), pages 1-19.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Duca, John V. & Muellbauer, John & Murphy, Anthony, 2010. "Housing markets and the financial crisis of 2007-2009: Lessons for the future," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 203-217, December.
    2. Dennis R. Capozza & Patric H. Hendershott & Charlotte Mack, 2004. "An Anatomy of Price Dynamics in Illiquid Markets: Analysis and Evidence from Local Housing Markets," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 32(1), pages 1-32, March.
    3. Patric H. Hendershott & Jesse M. Abraham, 1992. "Patterns and Determinants of Metropolitan House Prices, 1977-91," NBER Working Papers 4196, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Lim, Terence & Lo, Andrew W. & Merton, Robert C. & Scholes, Myron S., 2006. "The Derivatives Sourcebook," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 1(5–6), pages 365-572, April.
    5. Harter-Dreiman, Michelle, 2004. "Drawing inferences about housing supply elasticity from house price responses to income shocks," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 316-337, March.
    6. Sewin Chan, 1998. "Spatial Lock-in: Do Falling House Prices Constrain Residential Mobility?," Departmental Working Papers 199816, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
    7. Abebayehu Tegene & Keith Wiebe & Betsey Kuhn, 1999. "Irreversible Investment Under Uncertainty: Conservation Easements and the Option to Develop Agricultural Land," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 50(2), pages 203-219, May.
    8. Giorgio Canarella & Rangan Gupta & Stephen M. Miller & Stephen K. Pollard, 2019. "Unemployment rate hysteresis and the great recession: exploring the metropolitan evidence," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 61-79, January.
    9. Jesse M. Abraham & Patric H. Hendershott, 1994. "Bubbles in Metropolitan Housing Markets," NBER Working Papers 4774, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Plantinga, Andrew J. & Lubowski, Ruben N. & Stavins, Robert N., 2002. "The effects of potential land development on agricultural land prices," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 561-581, November.
    11. Pia Nilsson & Sara Johansson, 2013. "Location determinants of agricultural land prices," Review of Regional Research: Jahrbuch für Regionalwissenschaft, Springer;Gesellschaft für Regionalforschung (GfR), vol. 33(1), pages 1-21, February.
    12. Gao Lu Zou & Kwong Wing Chau, 2015. "Determinants and Sustainability of House Prices: The Case of Shanghai, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 7(4), pages 1-25, April.
    13. Capozza, Dennis R. & Seguin, Paul J., 1996. "Expectations, efficiency, and euphoria in the housing market," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3-4), pages 369-386, June.
    14. Spiegel, Matthew, 1999. "Housing Return and Construction Cycles," Research Program in Finance, Working Paper Series qt8647j8gq, Research Program in Finance, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
    15. Patric H. Hendershott, 1997. "Uses of equilibrium models in real estate research," Journal of Property Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(1), pages 1-13, January.
    16. Wayne Archer & Brent Smith, 2013. "Residential Mortgage Default: The Roles of House Price Volatility, Euphoria and the Borrower’s Put Option," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 46(2), pages 355-378, February.
    17. Matthew Spiegel, 1999. "Housing Return And Construction Cycles," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm114, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Mar 2001.
    18. Theodore M. Crone & Richard Voith, 1996. "Risk and return in the single-family housing market," Working Papers 96-16, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    19. William Goetzmann & Liang Peng & Jacqueline Yen, 2012. "The Subprime Crisis and House Price Appreciation," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 44(1), pages 36-66, January.
    20. Arthur Grimes & Suzi Kerr & Andrew Aitken, 2004. "Bi-Directions Impacts of Economic, Social and Environmental Changes and the New Zealand Housing Market," Working Papers 04_09, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:9262. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.