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Corporate Decision-Making under Uncertainty: Review and Future Research Directions

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  • Murillo Campello
  • Gaurav Kankanhalli

Abstract

Uncertainty over future business conditions lies at the heart of firm decision-making. Uncertainty can arise from a myriad of sources and is difficult to measure. We present a simple conceptual framework showing how several key corporate decisions are affected by uncertainty. We also highlight recent advances in the measurement of uncertainty, distinguishing between approaches that gauge aggregate uncertainty and those that capture different dimensions of firm-specific uncertainty. These approaches incorporate information obtained from market prices, big data, machine learning techniques, surveys, and more. We then review the growing body of empirical work that studies the role played by uncertainty in shaping outcomes ranging across corporate investment, asset base composition, innovation, liquidity management, payouts, and mergers. Our review outlines several opportunities for future research.

Suggested Citation

  • Murillo Campello & Gaurav Kankanhalli, 2022. "Corporate Decision-Making under Uncertainty: Review and Future Research Directions," NBER Working Papers 30733, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:30733
    Note: CF
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    JEL classification:

    • G31 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Capital Budgeting; Fixed Investment and Inventory Studies
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

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