IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/28963.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Noise in Expectations: Evidence from Analyst Forecasts

Author

Listed:
  • Tim de Silva
  • David Thesmar

Abstract

This paper quantifies the amount of noise and bias in analysts’ forecast of corporate earnings at various horizons. We first show analyst forecasts outperform statistical forecasts at short-horizons, but underperform at longer horizons. We next decompose the relative accuracy of these forecasts into three components: (i) noise, (ii) bias and (iii) analysts’ information advantage over statistical forecasts. We find the information advantage is constant across forecasting horizons, while both noise and bias are increase linearly. We then show most existing models lack a mechanism to account for these facts. To generate such a mechanism, we consider a parsimonious variant of the model of Patton and Timmermann (2010) with a noisy cognitive default and show it quantitatively fits the data. The intuition underlying this model is that forecasters rely on their biased and noisy defaults more at longer horizons, as rational forecasts are less accurate. This model also quantitatively matches two non-targeted empirical relationships: (i) analyst disagreement increases with horizon and (ii) noise is an increasing function of volatility.

Suggested Citation

  • Tim de Silva & David Thesmar, 2021. "Noise in Expectations: Evidence from Analyst Forecasts," NBER Working Papers 28963, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:28963
    Note: CF
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w28963.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Liu, Laura Xiaolei & Zhu, Yandi & Zhang, Xinyu & Zhang, Yingguang, 2023. "Expectation disarray: Analysts' growth forecast anomaly in China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • D9 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:28963. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.