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Risk Taking and Interest Rates : Evidence from Decades in the Global Syndicated Loan Market

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Abstract

We study how low interest rates in the United States affect risk taking in the market for cross-border corporate loans. Because banks tend to originate these loans with intent to sell to nonbank investors, we examine risk taking by the broad financial system. To the extent that actions of the Federal Reserve affect U.S. interest rates, our analysis provides evidence of cross-border spillover effects of U.S. monetary policy and highlights the global lending and risk-taking channels. We find that movements in the U.S. interest rates have an important effect on ex-ante credit risk of cross-border corporate loans, though the channels are different in the pre- and post-crisis periods. Before the crisis, banks made ex-ante riskier loans to non-U.S. borrowers in response to a decline in U.S. short-term interest rates, and, after it, banks and nonbanks originated such loans in response to a decline in U.S. longer- term interest rates. Economic uncertainty, risk appetite, and the U.S. dollar exchange rate appear to play a limited role in explaining ex-ante credit risk. Our results highlight the potential policy challenges faced by central banks in affecting credit risk cycles in their own jurisdictions.

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  • Seung Jung Lee & Lucy Qian Liu & Viktors Stebunovs, 2017. "Risk Taking and Interest Rates : Evidence from Decades in the Global Syndicated Loan Market," International Finance Discussion Papers 1188, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:1188
    DOI: 10.17016/IFDP.2017.1188
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    Cited by:

    1. Niepmann, Friederike & Schmidt-Eisenlohr, Tim, 2023. "Institutional investors, the dollar, and U.S. credit conditions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(1), pages 198-220.
    2. Gregory J. Cohen & Melanie Friedrichs & Kamran Gupta & William Hayes & Seung Jung Lee & W. Blake Marsh & Nathan Mislang & Maya Shaton & Martin Sicilian, 2018. "The U.S. Syndicated Loan Market: Matching Data," Research Working Paper RWP 18-9, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    3. Lee, Seung Jung & Liu, Lucy Qian & Stebunovs, Viktors, 2022. "Risk-taking spillovers of U.S. monetary policy in the global market for U.S. dollar corporate loans," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    4. Friederike Niepmann & Tim Schmidt‐Eisenlohr & Emily Liu, 2021. "The effect of US stress tests on monetary policy spillovers to emerging markets," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(1), pages 165-194, February.
    5. Buch, Claudia M. & Bussierè, Matthieu & Goldberg, Linda & Hills, Robert, 2019. "The international transmission of monetary policy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 29-48.
    6. Guillaume A. Khayat, 2017. "The Corridor's Width as a Monetary Policy Tool," Working Papers halshs-01611650, HAL.
    7. Calem, Paul & Correa, Ricardo & Lee, Seung Jung, 2020. "Prudential policies and their impact on credit in the United States," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 42(C).
    8. John Ammer & Alexandra Tabova & Stijn Claessens, 2018. "Searching for Yield Abroad: Risk-Taking through Foreign Investment in U.S. Bonds," 2018 Meeting Papers 960, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    9. Friederike Niepmann & Tim Schmidt-Eisenlohr, 2018. "Global Investors, the Dollar, and U.S. Credit Conditions," CESifo Working Paper Series 7288, CESifo.
    10. Matthys, Thomas & Meuleman, Elien & Vander Vennet, Rudi, 2020. "Unconventional monetary policy and bank risk taking," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    11. Zekeriya Yildirim & Mehmet Ivrendi, 2021. "Spillovers of US unconventional monetary policy: quantitative easing, spreads, and international financial markets," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 7(1), pages 1-38, December.
    12. Leonidas Paroussos & Kostas Fragkiadakis & Panagiotis Fragkos, 2020. "Macro-economic analysis of green growth policies: the role of finance and technical progress in Italian green growth," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 160(4), pages 591-608, June.
    13. Aramonte, Sirio & Lee, Seung Jung & Stebunovs, Viktors, 2022. "Risk taking and low longer-term interest rates: Evidence from the U.S. syndicated term loan market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Syndicated loans; Risk taking; Monetary policy; International spillovers;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General

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