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Global macroeconomic cooperation in response to the COVID-19 pandemic: a roadmap for the G20 and the IMF

Author

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  • Warwick McKibbin
  • David Vines

Abstract

The COVID-19 crisis has caused the greatest collapse in global economic activity since 1720. Some advanced countries have mounted a massive fiscal response, both to pay for disease-fighting action and to preserve the incomes of firms and workers until the economic recovery is under way. But there are many emerging market economies which have been prevented from doing what is needed by their high existing levels of public debt and—especially—by the external financial constraints which they face. We argue in the present paper that there is a need for international cooperation to allow such countries to undertake the kind of massive fiscal response that all countries now need, and that many advanced countries have been able to carry out. We show what such cooperation would involve. We use a global macroeconomic model to explore how extraordinarily beneficial such cooperation would be. Simulations of the model suggest that GDP in the countries in which extra fiscal support takes place would be around two and a half per cent higher in the first year, and that GDP in other countries in the world be more than one per cent higher. So far, such cooperation has been notably lacking, in striking contrast with what happened in the wake of the Global Financial Crisis in 2008. The necessary cooperation needs to be led by the Group of Twenty (G20), just as happened in 2008–9, since the G20 brings together the leaders of the world’s largest economies. This cooperation must also necessarily involve a promise of international financial support from the International Monetary Fund, otherwise international financial markets might take fright at the large budget deficits and current account deficits which will emerge, creating fiscal crises and currency crises and so causing such expansionary policies which we advocate to be brought to an end.

Suggested Citation

  • Warwick McKibbin & David Vines, 2020. "Global macroeconomic cooperation in response to the COVID-19 pandemic: a roadmap for the G20 and the IMF," CAMA Working Papers 2020-68, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  • Handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2020-68
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    File URL: https://cama.crawford.anu.edu.au/sites/default/files/publication/cama_crawford_anu_edu_au/2020-07/68_2020_mckibbin_vines.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Batten, Jonathan A. & Boubaker, Sabri & Kinateder, Harald & Choudhury, Tonmoy & Wagner, Niklas F., 2023. "Volatility impacts on global banks: Insights from the GFC, COVID-19, and the Russia-Ukraine war," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 215(C), pages 325-350.
    2. Yugang He & Yinhui Wang, 2022. "Macroeconomic Effects of COVID-19 Pandemic: Fresh Evidence from Korea," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-14, April.
    3. Mukhriz Izraf Azman Aziz & Norzalina Ahmad & Jin Zichu & Safwan Mohd Nor, 2022. "The Impact of COVID-19 on the Connectedness of Stock Index in ASEAN+3 Economies," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(9), pages 1-22, April.
    4. Shami, Labib & Lazebnik, Teddy, 2023. "Financing and managing epidemiological-economic crises: Are we ready for another outbreak?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 74-89.
    5. Baihua Yuan & Wang Leiling & Hayot Berk Saydaliev & Vishal Dagar & Ángel Acevedo-Duque, 2022. "Testing the impact of fiscal policies for economic recovery: does monetary policy act as catalytic tool for economic Survival," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 55(4), pages 2215-2235, November.
    6. Osman Taylan & Abdulaziz S. Alkabaa & Mustafa Tahsin Yılmaz, 2022. "Impact of COVID-19 on G20 countries: analysis of economic recession using data mining approaches," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 8(1), pages 1-30, December.
    7. Faheem Aslam & Paulo Ferreira & Khurrum Shahzad Mughal & Beenish Bashir, 2021. "Intraday Volatility Spillovers among European Financial Markets during COVID-19," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 9(1), pages 1-19, January.
    8. Seda Karakaş Geyik & Mehmet Hakan Satman & Gülin Kalyoncu, 2022. "Performance Evaluation of G20 Countries’ Fight Against COVID-19 Using Multiple Criteria Decision-Making Methods," EKOIST Journal of Econometrics and Statistics, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 0(37), pages 27-52, December.
    9. Okey Peter Onyia, 2021. "New trends in financial service delivery and corporate/individual customers′ financial adjustments consequent upon the COVID-19 global pandemic," Journal of Financial Services Marketing, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 26(4), pages 203-204, December.
    10. McKibbin, Warwick & Fernando, Roshen, 2023. "The global economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    11. Roshen Fernando & Warwick J. McKibbin, 2021. "Macroeconomic policy adjustments due to COVID-19: Scenarios to 2025 with a focus on Asia," CAMA Working Papers 2021-17, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    12. Su, Chi-Wei & Rizvi, Syed Kumail Abbas & Naqvi, Bushra & Mirza, Nawazish & Umar, Muhammad, 2022. "COVID19: A blessing in disguise for European stock markets?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    13. Jin Li & Guie Fu & Xichen Zhao, 2024. "Urban Economic Resilience and Supply Chain Dynamics: Evaluating Monetary Recovery Policies in Global Cities during the Early COVID-19 Pandemic," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-20, February.
    14. Scott Duke Kominers & Alex Tabarrok, 2022. "Vaccines and the Covid-19 pandemic: lessons from failure and success," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 38(4), pages 719-741.
    15. Balan Sundarakani & Okey Peter Onyia, 2021. "Fast, furious and focused approach to Covid-19 response: an examination of the financial and business resilience of the UAE logistics industry," Journal of Financial Services Marketing, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 26(4), pages 237-258, December.
    16. Simionescu, Mihaela & Raišienė, Agota Giedrė, 2021. "A bridge between sentiment indicators: What does Google Trends tell us about COVID-19 pandemic and employment expectations in the EU new member states?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    17. Víctor Manuel Cuevas Ahumada & Cuauhtémoc Calderón Villarreal, 2023. "Government policies and manufacturing production during the COVID-19 pandemic," Remef - Revista Mexicana de Economía y Finanzas Nueva Época REMEF (The Mexican Journal of Economics and Finance), Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas, IMEF, vol. 18(4), pages 1-19, Octubre -.
    18. Li, Zepei & Huang, Haizhen, 2023. "Challenges for volatility forecasts of US fossil energy spot markets during the COVID-19 crisis," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 31-45.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19; risk; macroeconomics; DSGE; CGE; G-Cubed (G20);
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C54 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Quantitative Policy Modeling
    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
    • O55 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Africa

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