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Privatization, Political Risk and Stock Market Development

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  • Perotti, Enrico C
  • van Oijen, Pieter

Abstract

This paper investigates whether privatization in emerging economies has a significant indirect effect on local stock market development through the resolution of political risk. We argue that a sustained privatization program represents a major political test which gradually resolves uncertainty over political commitment to a market-oriented policy as well as to regulatory and private property rights. We present evidence suggesting that progress in privatization is correlated with improvements in perceived political risk and that these improvements are significantly larger in privatizing countries than in non-privatizing countries, indicating that the resolution of such risk is endogenous to the privatization process. Our analysis further shows that changes in political risk in general tend to have a strong effect on local stock market development and excess returns in emerging economies, suggesting that political risk is a priced factor. We conclude that the resolution of political risk resulting from successful privatization has been an important source for the rapid growth of stock markets in emerging economies.

Suggested Citation

  • Perotti, Enrico C & van Oijen, Pieter, 1999. "Privatization, Political Risk and Stock Market Development," CEPR Discussion Papers 2243, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:2243
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    Cited by:

    1. Cherian, Joseph A. & Perotti, Enrico, 2001. "Option pricing and foreign investment under political risk," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 359-377, December.
    2. Randall K. Filer & Jan Hanousek & Nauro F. Campos, 1999. "Do Stock Markets Promote Economic Growth," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 267, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    3. Ranko Jelic & Richard Briston & Wolfgang Aussenegg, 2003. "The Choice of Privatization Method and the Financial Performance of Newly Privatized Firms in Transition Economies," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(7‐8), pages 905-940, September.
    4. Wolfgang Aussenegg, 1999. "Going Public in Poland: Case-by-Case Privatizations, Mass Privatization and Private Sector Initial Public Offerings," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 292, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    5. Bilson, Christopher M. & Brailsford, Timothy J. & Hooper, Vincent C., 2002. "The explanatory power of political risk in emerging markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 1-27.
    6. Mateus, Tiago, 2004. "The risk and predictability of equity returns of the EU accession countries," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 241-266, June.
    7. Tuan Viet Le, 2020. "Freedom of the Press and Equity Returns: Empirical Investigation in Emerging Markets," Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, Emerging Markets Forum, vol. 12(3), pages 359-377, September.
    8. Chotiphun Tiaviwat, 2020. "Examining the Determinants of Privatization: The ASEAN Context," Journal of Public Administration and Governance, Macrothink Institute, vol. 10(2), pages 370397-3703, December.
    9. Mr. Andreas Billmeier & Miss Isabella Massa, 2007. "What Drives Stock Market Development in the Middle East and Central Asia—Institutions, Remittances, or Natural Resources?," IMF Working Papers 2007/157, International Monetary Fund.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Emerging Markets; Equity Issue; Financial Development; Political Risk; Privatization;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets

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