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Un modelo Casi Ideal de Demanda de Combustibles para la Industria de Transporte

Author

Listed:
  • John J. García
  • Daniel Pérez
  • Marcela Orrego P.
  • John Mauro Cataño D.

Abstract

This article presents an Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS) for different types of fuels in Colombia, focusing specifically on the transport industry. Estimates of price, expenditure and cross elasticities are computed using a Seemingly Unrelated Regressions (SUR) model and based on 10 years observations (2003-2012). Results show that diesel and regular gas behave as inelastic goods while natural gas is more elastic. Also, diesel fuels and natural gas seem to behave as substitutes while there’s a complementary relation among the others (regular gas-Diesel; regular fuels-Natural Gas). Regarding the expenditures elasticities, this paper concludes that regular gas and diesel behave as normal goods while natural gas seems be an inferior type of fuel for the transport sector. Resumen: Este paper utilizando el Modelo Casi Ideal de Demanda (AIDS) por medio de ecuaciones aparentemente no relacionadas para la industria de combustibles en el sector transporte en Colombia, analiza las elasticidades precio de la demanda, precio cruzada de la demanda y gasto de la demanda de la Gasolina motor, Diesel y Gas Natural Vehicular (GNV), dada la recomposición que ha presentado esta industria entre el 2003 y 2012, con el objetivo de determinar si estos combustibles se comportan como sustitutos o complementarios y se trata de bienes necesarios o no. Los principales resultados indican que la elasticidad precio de la demanda de la Gasolina y el Diesel son bienes inelásticos, mientras que el GNV se comporta como un bien elástico. Por su parte, por medio de la elasticidad precio cruzada de la demanda, se encuentra que solo el Diesel y el GNV se comportan como bienes sustitutos, mientras que para el resto de relaciones (Gasolina-Diesel y Gasolina-GNV) se observa un comportamiento de complementariedad. Además desde la elasticidad gasto de la demanda se encontró que la Gasolina y el Diesel se comportan como bienes normales, mientras que el GNV resulta ser un bien inferior.

Suggested Citation

  • John J. García & Daniel Pérez & Marcela Orrego P. & John Mauro Cataño D., 2016. "Un modelo Casi Ideal de Demanda de Combustibles para la Industria de Transporte," Documentos de Trabajo de Valor Público 14256, Universidad EAFIT.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000122:014256
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10784/8021
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    AIDS; SUR; Microeconometrics; Transport; Fuels; Natural Gas; Diesel; Fuels; elasticities;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • L92 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Railroads and Other Surface Transportation
    • Y - Miscellaneous Categories
    • L98 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Government Policy

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