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Explaining the EUA-CER Spread

Author

Listed:
  • Marc Gronwald
  • Beat Hintermann

Abstract

Because of a link between the EU ETS and the Kyoto Flexible Mechanisms, the emission certificates traded on these markets are in principle interchangeable assets; despite of this, a persistent price difference exists. We explain this price spread using a theoretical model that combines three features: A binding limit for the use of Kyoto offsets within the EU ETS; a disconnect between the price of offsets and their marginal cost of production due to institutional reasons; and uncertainty about future supply and demand of offsets. Our model expresses the offset price as an average of the EUA price and an offset’s outside value, weighted by the probability of a binding import limit. Using a detailed dataset on expected offset supply and demand, we provide empirical support for our theory of offset price formation. In addition, we find evidence for informational frictions governing the use of offsets within the EU ETS.

Suggested Citation

  • Marc Gronwald & Beat Hintermann, 2016. "Explaining the EUA-CER Spread," CESifo Working Paper Series 5795, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_5795
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Gronwald, Marc & Hintermann, Beat (ed.), 2015. "Emissions Trading as a Policy Instrument: Evaluation and Prospects," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262029286, December.
    2. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    3. Nazifi, Fatemeh, 2013. "Modelling the price spread between EUA and CER carbon prices," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 434-445.
    4. repec:dau:papers:123456789/11687 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Peter C. B. Phillips & Yangru Wu & Jun Yu, 2011. "EXPLOSIVE BEHAVIOR IN THE 1990s NASDAQ: WHEN DID EXUBERANCE ESCALATE ASSET VALUES?," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 52(1), pages 201-226, February.
    6. Mansanet-Bataller, Maria & Chevallier, Julien & Hervé-Mignucci, Morgan & Alberola, Emilie, 2011. "EUA and sCER phase II price drivers: Unveiling the reasons for the existence of the EUA-sCER spread," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 1056-1069, March.
    7. Kanamura, Takashi, 2016. "Role of carbon swap trading and energy prices in price correlations and volatilities between carbon markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 204-212.
    8. Koop, Gary & Tole, Lise, 2013. "Modeling the relationship between European carbon permits and certified emission reductions," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 166-181.
    9. repec:dau:papers:123456789/7938 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Julien Chevallier, 2012. "EUAs and CERs: Interactions in a Markov regime-switching environment," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 32(1), pages 86-101.
    11. repec:dau:papers:123456789/5109 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Raphael Trotignon, 2012. "Combining cap-and-trade with offsets: lessons from the EU-ETS," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(3), pages 273-287, May.
    13. Rahman, Shaikh M. & Kirkman, Grant A., 2015. "Costs of certified emission reductions under the Clean Development Mechanism of the Kyoto Protocol," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 129-141.
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    Cited by:

    1. Simon Quemin & Christian Perthuis, 2019. "Transitional Restricted Linkage Between Emissions Trading Schemes," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 74(1), pages 1-32, September.
    2. M. Angeles Carnero & Jose Olmo & Lorenzo Pascual, 2018. "Modelling the Dynamics of Fuel and EU Allowance Prices during Phase 3 of the EU ETS," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-23, November.
    3. Gavin A. Whitaker & Ricardo Silva & Daniel Edwards & Ioannis Kosmidis, 2021. "A Bayesian approach for determining player abilities in football," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 70(1), pages 174-201, January.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    EU ETS; clean development mechanism; offset demand; EUA-CER spread;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q02 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General - - - Commodity Market
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • Q58 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Government Policy

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