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Projection Minimum Distance: An Estimator for Dynamic Macroeconomic Models

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  • Oscar Jorda
  • Sharon Kozicki

    (Department of Economics, University of California Davis)

Abstract

This paper introduces an estimator for dynamic macroeconomic models where possibly the dynamics and the variables described therein are incomplete representations of a larger, unknown macroeconomic system. We call this estimator projection minimum distance (PMD) and show that it is consistent and asymptotically normal. Many times, PMD can provide consistent estimates of structural parameters even when the dynamics of the macroeconomic model are insufficient to account for the serial correlation of the data or correlation with information omitted from the model. PMD provides an overall specification chi-squared test based on the distance between the impulse responses of the model and their semi-parametric estimates from the data. PMD only requires two, simple, least-squares steps and can be generalized to more complex, nonlinear environments.

Suggested Citation

  • Oscar Jorda & Sharon Kozicki, 2006. "Projection Minimum Distance: An Estimator for Dynamic Macroeconomic Models," Working Papers 154, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:cda:wpaper:154
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    File URL: https://repec.dss.ucdavis.edu/files/mBuEs74jbv9z8Zank6dRrYA8/06-23.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Christiano, Lawrence J, 2002. "Solving Dynamic Equilibrium Models by a Method of Undetermined Coefficients," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 20(1-2), pages 21-55, October.
    2. John B. Taylor, 1999. "Introduction to "Monetary Policy Rules"," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 1-14, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Lewis, Richard & Reinsel, Gregory C., 1985. "Prediction of multivariate time series by autoregressive model fitting," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 393-411, June.
    4. John B. Taylor, 1999. "A Historical Analysis of Monetary Policy Rules," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 319-348, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. John B. Taylor, 1999. "Monetary Policy Rules," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number tayl99-1, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Oscar Jorda, 2007. "Joint Inference and Counterfactual experimentation for Impulse Response Functions by Local Projections," Working Papers 624, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
    2. Oscar Jorda, 2007. "Inference for Impulse Responses," Working Papers 77, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
    3. Oscar Jorda, 2007. "Joint Inference and Counterfactual experimentation for Impulse Response Functions by Local Projections," Working Papers 107, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.

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