IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bde/wpaper/1702.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Business cycle estimation with high-pass and band-pass local polynomial regression

Author

Listed:
  • Luis J. Álvarez

    (Banco de España)

Abstract

Filters constructed on the basis of standard local polynomial regression (LPR) methods have been used in the literature to estimate the business cycle. We provide a frequency domain interpretation of the contrast filter obtained by the difference between a series and its long-run LPR component and show that it operates as a kind of high-pass filter, meaning it provides a noisy estimate of the cycle. We alternatively propose band-pass local polynomial regression methods aimed at isolating the cyclical component. Results are compared to standard high-pass and band-pass filters. Procedures are illustrated using the US GDP series.

Suggested Citation

  • Luis J. Álvarez, 2017. "Business cycle estimation with high-pass and band-pass local polynomial regression," Working Papers 1702, Banco de España.
    • Handle: RePEc:bde:wpaper:1702
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.bde.es/f/webbde/SES/Secciones/Publicaciones/PublicacionesSeriadas/DocumentosTrabajo/17/Fich/dt1702e.pdf
    File Function: First version, January 2017
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1999. "Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters For Economic Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 575-593, November.
    2. Edward E. Leamer, 2007. "Housing is the business cycle," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 149-233.
    3. Canova, Fabio, 1998. "Detrending and business cycle facts: A user's guide," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 533-540, May.
    4. Canova, Fabio, 1998. "Detrending and business cycle facts," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 475-512, May.
    5. D. S. G. Pollock, 2016. "Econometric Filters," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 48(4), pages 669-691, December.
    6. Hodrick, Robert J & Prescott, Edward C, 1997. "Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(1), pages 1-16, February.
    7. Estela Bee Dagum & Alessandra Luati, 2009. "A Cascade Linear Filter to Reduce Revisions and False Turning Points for Real Time Trend-Cycle Estimation," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(1-3), pages 40-59.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Álvarez, Luis J. & Gómez-Loscos, Ana, 2018. "A menu on output gap estimation methods," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 827-850.
    2. L.A. Gil-Alanaa, 2007. "Testing The Existence of Multiple Cycles in Financial and Economic Time Series," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 8(1), pages 1-20, May.
    3. Aastveit, Knut Are & Trovik, Tørres, 2014. "Estimating the output gap in real time: A factor model approach," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 180-193.
    4. Maravall, A. & del Rio, A., 2007. "Temporal aggregation, systematic sampling, and the Hodrick-Prescott filter," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 975-998, October.
    5. Aadland, David, 2005. "Detrending time-aggregated data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 89(3), pages 287-293, December.
    6. Klarl, Torben, 2020. "The response of CO2 emissions to the business cycle: New evidence for the U.S," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    7. Hall, Viv B & Thomson, Peter, 2022. "A boosted HP filter for business cycle analysis: evidence from New Zealand’s small open economy," Working Paper Series 9473, Victoria University of Wellington, School of Economics and Finance.
    8. Lubik, Thomas A. & Matthes, Christian & Verona, Fabio, 2019. "Assessing U.S. aggregate fluctuations across time and frequencies," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 5/2019, Bank of Finland.
    9. Fukuda, Kosei, 2012. "Illustrating extraordinary shocks causing trend breaks," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1045-1052.
    10. Ghate, Chetan & Pandey, Radhika & Patnaik, Ila, 2013. "Has India emerged? Business cycle stylized facts from a transitioning economy," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 157-172.
    11. Pontines, Victor, 2017. "The financial cycles in four East Asian economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 51-66.
    12. Calcagnini, Giorgio & Travaglini, Giuseppe, 2014. "A time series analysis of labor productivity. Italy versus the European countries and the U.S," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 622-628.
    13. Jitka Poměnková & Roman Maršálek, 2015. "Empirical Evidence of Ideal Filter Approximation: Peripheral and Selected EU Countries Application," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2015(5), pages 485-502.
    14. Michaelides, Panayotis G. & Milios, John G. & Konstantakis, Konstantinos N. & Tarnaras, Panayiotis, 2015. "Quantity-of-money fluctuations and economic instability: empirical evidence for the USA (1958–2006)," MPRA Paper 90145, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Rand, John & Tarp, Finn, 2002. "Business Cycles in Developing Countries: Are They Different?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 30(12), pages 2071-2088, December.
    16. Zarnowitz, Victor & Ozyildirim, Ataman, 2006. "Time series decomposition and measurement of business cycles, trends and growth cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(7), pages 1717-1739, October.
    17. Konstantakis, Konstantinos N. & Michaelides, Panayotis G., 2017. "Technology and Business Cycles: A Schumpeterian Investigation for the USA," MPRA Paper 80636, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. L.A. Gil-Alana, 2005. "Fractional Cyclical Structures & Business Cycles in the Specification of the US Real Output," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(1-2), pages 99-126.
    19. Basistha, Arabinda & Nelson, Charles R., 2007. "New measures of the output gap based on the forward-looking new Keynesian Phillips curve," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 498-511, March.
    20. Sun Xiaojin & Tsang Kwok Ping, 2019. "What cycles? Data detrending in DSGE models," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 23(3), pages 1-23, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    business cycles; local polynomial regression; filtering; high-pass; band-pass; US cycles;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bde:wpaper:1702. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ángel Rodríguez. Electronic Dissemination of Information Unit. Research Department. Banco de España (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bdegves.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.