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Effects of nondiscretionary trading on futures prices

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  • Michael J. O'Neill
  • Robert E. Whaley

Abstract

This paper examines the effects of the nondiscretionary trading demands of volatility index (VIX) exchange‐traded products (ETPs) issuers on the prices and volumes in the VIX futures. We find that the ETPs' informationless, mechanical rebalancing of futures positions to maintain the constant maturity of the index and the promised leverage ratios of the VIX ETPs have significantly positive predictive power for end‐of‐day futures returns. We also show that the impact on price has diminished through time from increased liquidity provided by hedge funds, and the “natural” hedging of the issuers' inverse products.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael J. O'Neill & Robert E. Whaley, 2023. "Effects of nondiscretionary trading on futures prices," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(1), pages 33-68, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jfutmk:v:43:y:2023:i:1:p:33-68
    DOI: 10.1002/fut.22377
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    References listed on IDEAS

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