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On the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy and of Fiscal Policy

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  • Philip Arestis
  • Malcolm Sawyer

Abstract

There has been a major shift within macroeconomic policy over the past two decades or so in terms of the relative importance given to monetary policy and to fiscal policy in both policy and theoretical terms. The former has gained considerably in importance, with the latter being rarely mentioned. Furthermore, the nature of monetary policy has shifted away from any attempt to control some monetary aggregate (prevalent in the first half of the 1980s), and instead monetary policy has focused on the setting of interest rates as the key policy instrument. There has also been a general shift towards the adoption of inflation targets and the use of monetary policy to target inflation. This paper considers the significance of this shift in the nature of monetary policy. This enables us to question the effectiveness of monetary policy, and to explore the role of fiscal policy. We examine these questions from the point of view of the "new consensus" in monetary economics and suggest that it is rather limited in its analysis. When the analysis is broadened out to embrace empirical issues and evidence the clear conclusion emerges that monetary policy is relatively impotent. The role of fiscal policy is also considered, and we argue that fiscal policy (under specified conditions) remains a powerful tool for macroeconomic policy. This is particularly an apt conclusion under current economic conditions.

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  • Philip Arestis & Malcolm Sawyer, 2004. "On the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy and of Fiscal Policy," Review of Social Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 62(4), pages 441-463.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:rsocec:v:62:y:2004:i:4:p:441-463
    DOI: 10.1080/0034676042000296218
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    1. Bernanke, Ben S. & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1999. "The financial accelerator in a quantitative business cycle framework," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 21, pages 1341-1393, Elsevier.
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    3. Philip Arestis & Malcolm Sawyer, 2002. "Can Monetary Policy Affect The Real Economy?," Macroeconomics 0209012, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Takeo Hoshi & Anil Kashyap & David Scharfstein, 1991. "Corporate Structure, Liquidity, and Investment: Evidence from Japanese Industrial Groups," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 106(1), pages 33-60.
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    Cited by:

    1. P Arestis & A Mihailov, 2009. "Flexible Rules cum Constrained Discretion: A New Consensus in Monetary Policy," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 14(2), pages 27-54, September.
    2. Mark Setterfield & Kurt von Seekamm, 2012. "Stabilization Policy with an Endogenous Commercial Bank," Chapters, in: Louis-Philippe Rochon & Salewa ‘Yinka Olawoye (ed.), Monetary Policy and Central Banking, chapter 2, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    3. Şen, Hüseyin & Kaya, Ayşe, 2017. "How large are fiscal multipliers in Turkey?," EconStor Preprints 162763, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    4. Malcolm Sawyer, 2011. "Re-thinking Macroeconomic Policies," Chapters, in: Claude Gnos & Louis-Philippe Rochon (ed.), Credit, Money and Macroeconomic Policy, chapter 13, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    5. Ghanashyama Mahanty & Dwijendra Nath Dwivedi & Badri Narayanan Gopalakrishnan, 2023. "The Efficacy of Fiscal Vs Monetary Policies in the Asia-Pacific Region: The St. Louis Equation Revisited," Vision, , vol. 27(2), pages 256-263, April.
    6. Azizi, Karim & Canry, Nicolas & Chatelain, Jean-Bernard & Tinel, Bruno, 2013. "Government Solvency, Austerity and Fiscal Consolidation in the OECD: A Keynesian Appraisal of Transversality and No Ponzi Game Conditions," EconStor Preprints 72550, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    7. Kallal, Sami & Guetat, Imène, 2020. "Fiscal stance, election year and 2007 crisis, evidence from OECD countries (1980–2017)," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 21(C).
    8. Jean-Bernard Chatelain & Bruno Tinel & Karim Azizi & Nicolas Canry, 2012. "Are the No-Ponzi Game and the Transversality Conditions Relevant for Public Debt? A Keynesian Appraisal," Post-Print hal-00686788, HAL.
    9. Muriel Pucci & Bruno Tinel, 2010. "Réductions d'impôts et dette publique : un lien à ne pas occulter," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 10085, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    10. Pedro Leão, 2013. "The Effect of Government Spending on the Debt-to-GDP Ratio: Some Keynesian Arithmetic," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 64(3), pages 448-465, July.
    11. Angel Asensio & Sébastien Charles & Edwin Le Héron & Dany Lang, 2011. "Recent developments in Post-Keynesian modeling [Los desarrollos recientes de la macroeconomía post-keynesiana]," Post-Print halshs-00664867, HAL.
    12. Angel Asensio, 2008. "(Post) Keynesian alternative to inflation targeting," Post-Print halshs-00335560, HAL.
    13. repec:rdg:wpaper:em-dp2007-53 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Asensio, Angel & Charles, Sébastien & Lang, Dany & Le Heron, Edwin, 2011. "Les développements récents de la macroéconomie post-keynésienne," Revue de la Régulation - Capitalisme, institutions, pouvoirs, Association Recherche et Régulation, vol. 10.
    15. Mark Hayes, 2006. "The Economics of Keynes: A New Guide to The General Theory," Books, Post Keynesian Economics Society (PKES), number nggt.
    16. Louis-Philippe Rochon & Sergio Rossi, 2013. "Endogenous money: the evolutionary versus revolutionary views," Review of Keynesian Economics, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 1(2), pages 210-229, January.
    17. Ulas Sener, 2011. "Turkish Monetary Policy in a Post-Crises Era: A Further Case of ‘New Consensus’?," Chapters, in: Claude Gnos & Louis-Philippe Rochon (ed.), Credit, Money and Macroeconomic Policy, chapter 14, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    18. Alina Klonowska, 2019. "Barriers for effectiveness of fiscal policy: the case of Poland," Ekonomia i Prawo, Uniwersytet Mikolaja Kopernika, vol. 18(1), pages 29-45, March.
    19. Julio Lopez-Gallardo & Luis Reyes-Ortiz, 2011. "Effective Demand in the Recent Evolution of the US Economy," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_673, Levy Economics Institute.

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