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Regional power system transitions towards carbon neutrality: The case of North China

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  • Ying Fan
  • Zhuang Liang
  • Xing Yao

Abstract

China has announced its goal of reaching carbon neutrality by 2060, which will have a profound impact on its energy and economic systems. During this process, the power sector will play a key role in helping the country on its road towards carbon neutrality. This study develops a multi-regional power dispatch and capacity expansion model to combine long-term capacity expansion with short-term power dispatch. The model is built to optimise the carbon-neutral transition pathway from the perspective of economics, focussing on power system stability and reliability under high penetrations of renewables. Using the case study of North China, the cost-effective methods for power system transitions under the targets of reaching peak emissions by 2030 and achieving carbon neutrality by 2060 are discussed under different scenarios. We find that the future power supply system will rely heavily on renewable energy which will account for more than 89% of power generation. Inner Mongolia will produce more than 84% of power in the North China region. The inter-regional power transmission capacity will be five times higher than its current level. Policy choices will lead to different transition pathways as the early-stage installation decisions will have a lock-in effect on the following carbon emission reduction strategies and determine the importance of technologies adopted in achieving carbon neutrality. Although the transition to a low-carbon economy will result in an increase in cost by 17–19%, it will bring huge climate benefits to the world.

Suggested Citation

  • Ying Fan & Zhuang Liang & Xing Yao, 2022. "Regional power system transitions towards carbon neutrality: The case of North China," Economic and Political Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(4), pages 416-441, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:repsxx:v:10:y:2022:i:4:p:416-441
    DOI: 10.1080/20954816.2022.2067516
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    Cited by:

    1. Tianyu Lu & Hongyu Li, 2024. "Can China’s Regional Industrial Chain Innovation and Reform Policy Make the Impossible Triangle of Energy Attainable? A Causal Inference Study on the Effect of Improving Industrial Chain Resilience," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(10), pages 1-33, May.
    2. Zeyu Xie & Mian Yang & Fei Xu, 2023. "Carbon emission trading system and stock price crash risk of heavily polluting listed companies in China: based on analyst coverage mechanism," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 1-30, December.
    3. Wu, Baohui & Zhu, Pingheng & Yin, Hua & Wen, Fenghua, 2023. "The risk spillover of high carbon enterprises in China: Evidence from the stock market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).

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