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Understanding the dynamics of the macroeconomic trilemma

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  • Amr S. Hosny
  • N. Kundan Kishor
  • Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee

Abstract

This paper tests the autonomy of domestic monetary policy in the context of the macroeconomic policy trilemma for a large data-set of developing and developed countries covering three different time periods characterized with different exchange rate regimes and capital controls. The existing literature uses fixed coefficient methodologies to examine monetary policy independence; whereas we show that the coefficients of interest are unstable as countries switch between different exchange rate regimes and/or capital controls over time. The contribution is in using a time-varying parameter model that better captures the effects of the heterogeneity in different exchange rate regimes and capital mobility restrictions on monetary policy independence over time, allowing a more accurate test of the macroeconomic trilemma.

Suggested Citation

  • Amr S. Hosny & N. Kundan Kishor & Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee, 2015. "Understanding the dynamics of the macroeconomic trilemma," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(1), pages 32-64, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:irapec:v:29:y:2015:i:1:p:32-64
    DOI: 10.1080/02692171.2014.933788
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    1. Chee-Hong Law & Chee-Lip Tee & Wei-Theng Lau, 2019. "The Impacts of Financial Integration on the Linkages Between Monetary Independence and Foreign Exchange Reserves," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(2), pages 212-235, April.
    2. Köhler, Karsten, 2016. "Currency devaluations, aggregate demand, and debt dynamics in an economy with foreign currency liabilities," IPE Working Papers 78/2016, Berlin School of Economics and Law, Institute for International Political Economy (IPE).
    3. Amr Hosny, 2020. "Remittance Concentration and Volatility: Evidence from 72 Developing Countries," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(4), pages 553-570, October.

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