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Inflation Thresholds and Growth

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  • Hakan Yilmazkuday

Abstract

This paper investigates inflation thresholds that lead to higher growth rates using five-year averages of standard variables for 84 countries from 1965 to 2004. The historical experience has important policy implications for developing countries: (i) the catch-up effect has worked only when inflation is below 12%; (ii) the positive effect of human capital on growth has been present and significant when inflation has been below 15%; (iii) financial development has been effective only when inflation has been below 10%; (iv) government size has negatively affected growth when inflation has been below 10%; (v) trade has positively affected growth when inflation has been below 8%.

Suggested Citation

  • Hakan Yilmazkuday, 2013. "Inflation Thresholds and Growth," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(1), pages 1-10, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:intecj:v:27:y:2013:i:1:p:1-10
    DOI: 10.1080/10168737.2012.658831
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Bernard Njindan Iyke & Nicholas M. Odhiambo, 2017. "Inflationary Thresholds, Financial Development and Economic Growth: New Evidence from Two West African Countries," Global Economy Journal (GEJ), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 17(2), pages 1-11, June.
    2. Altinok, Nadir & Aydemir, Abdurrahman, 2017. "Does one size fit all? The impact of cognitive skills on economic growth," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 176-190.
    3. Thang Cong Nguyen & Tan Ngoc Vu & Duc Hong Vo & Dao Thi-Thieu Ha, 2019. "Financial Development and Income Inequality in Emerging Markets: A New Approach," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-14, November.
    4. Önder, Ali Sina & Yilmazkuday, Hakan, 2016. "Trade partner diversification and growth: How trade links matter," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 241-258.
    5. Eggoh, Jude C. & Khan, Muhammad, 2014. "On the nonlinear relationship between inflation and economic growth," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(2), pages 133-143.
    6. Ooft, Gavin, 2016. "Inflation and Economic Activity in Suriname," EconStor Preprints 215533, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    7. Sin-Yu Ho, 2018. "Analysing the sources of growth in an emerging market economy: the Thailand experience," International Journal of Sustainable Economy, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 10(4), pages 340-359.
    8. Bernard Njindan Iyke & Sin-Yu Ho, 2019. "Inflation, Inflation Uncertainty, and Growth: Evidence from Ghana," Contemporary Economics, University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw., vol. 13(2), June.
    9. M Arayssi & A Fakih, 2017. "The Finance-Growth Nexus, again: New Evidence from Kenya," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 22(2), pages 33-59, September.
    10. Ahmed Taneem Muzaffar & Anis Chowdhury, 2014. "The IMF and the policy of low inflation: A review of Article IV consultations for selected Asian developing countries," The Economic and Labour Relations Review, , vol. 25(3), pages 435-454, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Bernard Njindan Iyke & Nicholas M. Odhiambo, 2017. "Inflationary Thresholds, Financial Development and Economic Growth: New Evidence from Two West African Countries," Global Economy Journal (GEJ), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 17(2), pages 1-11, June.
    2. Altinok, Nadir & Aydemir, Abdurrahman, 2017. "Does one size fit all? The impact of cognitive skills on economic growth," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 176-190.
    3. Zheng, Zhijie & Huang, Chien-Yu & Yang, Yibai, 2021. "Inflation And Growth: A Non-Monotonic Relationship In An Innovation-Driven Economy," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(5), pages 1199-1226, July.
    4. Ooft, Gavin, 2016. "Inflation and Economic Activity in Suriname," EconStor Preprints 215533, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    5. Bernard Njindan Iyke & Sin-Yu Ho, 2019. "Inflation, Inflation Uncertainty, and Growth: Evidence from Ghana," Contemporary Economics, University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw., vol. 13(2), June.
    6. Sin-Yu Ho, 2018. "Analysing the sources of growth in an emerging market economy: the Thailand experience," International Journal of Sustainable Economy, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 10(4), pages 340-359.
    7. Thang Cong Nguyen & Tan Ngoc Vu & Duc Hong Vo & Dao Thi-Thieu Ha, 2019. "Financial Development and Income Inequality in Emerging Markets: A New Approach," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-14, November.
    8. Eggoh, Jude C. & Khan, Muhammad, 2014. "On the nonlinear relationship between inflation and economic growth," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(2), pages 133-143.
    9. Mandeya Shelton M.T & Ho Sin-Yu, 2022. "Inflation, Inflation Uncertainty and the Economic Growth Nexus: A Review of the Literature," Folia Oeconomica Stetinensia, Sciendo, vol. 22(1), pages 172-190, June.
    10. Hakan Yilmazkuday, 2022. "Inflation and growth: the role of institutions," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 46(1), pages 167-187, January.
    11. Önder, Ali Sina & Yilmazkuday, Hakan, 2016. "Trade partner diversification and growth: How trade links matter," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 241-258.
    12. Ujkani Xheneta & Gara Atdhetar, 2023. "Determinants of the Inflation Rate: Evidence from Panel Data," Economics, Sciendo, vol. 11(2), pages 169-182, December.
    13. Enock Nyorekwa Twinoburyo & Nicholas M Odhiambo, 2018. "Can Monetary Policy drive economic growth? Empirical evidence from Tanzania," Contemporary Economics, University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw., vol. 12(2), June.
    14. Ahmed Taneem Muzaffar & Anis Chowdhury, 2014. "The IMF and the policy of low inflation: A review of Article IV consultations for selected Asian developing countries," The Economic and Labour Relations Review, , vol. 25(3), pages 435-454, September.
    15. Rousseau, Peter L. & Yilmazkuday, Hakan, 2009. "Inflation, financial development, and growth: A trilateral analysis," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 310-324, December.
    16. Yilmazkuday, Hakan, 2022. "Drivers of Turkish inflation," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 315-323.
    17. Nyorekwa, Enock Twinoburyo & Odhiambo, Nicholas Mbaya, 2016. "Monetary policy and economic growth in Kenya:The role of money supply and interest rates," Working Papers 20712, University of South Africa, Department of Economics.

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