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Can free trade help convert the 'Arab Spring' into permanent peace and democracy?

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  • Thorvaldur Gylfason
  • Inmaculada Mart�nez-Zarzoso
  • Per Magnus Wijkman

Abstract

Using a panel gravity model of trade for the period 1995-2010, this paper estimates the potential for increased intra-regional trade among 10 countries of the southern and eastern Mediterranean coast. It examines how closer integration through the EU's revised neighborhood policy can encourage democratisation and conflict resolution. The main results indicate that while the gains realized to date from regional integration have been small, significant potential gains from deep integration exist. The paper proposes that the EU starts by negotiating deep and comprehensive free trade agreements with Egypt, Israel and Jordan provided these countries also negotiate them with each other.

Suggested Citation

  • Thorvaldur Gylfason & Inmaculada Mart�nez-Zarzoso & Per Magnus Wijkman, 2015. "Can free trade help convert the 'Arab Spring' into permanent peace and democracy?," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(3), pages 247-270, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:26:y:2015:i:3:p:247-270
    DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2014.886433
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Bourdet, Yves & Persson, Maria, 2011. "Reaping the Benefits of Deeper Euro-Med Integration Through Trade Facilitation," Working Paper Series 881, Research Institute of Industrial Economics.
    2. Sekkat, Khalid, 2010. "Arab Economic Integration: Missing links," CEPR Discussion Papers 7807, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. María Dolores Parra Robles & Inmaculada Martínez-Zarzoso & Celestino Suárez Burguet, 2012. "The impact of FTAs on MENA trade," Ibero America Institute for Econ. Research (IAI) Discussion Papers 217, Ibero-America Institute for Economic Research.
    4. Gary Clyde Hufbauer & Claire Brunel, 2008. "Maghreb Regional and Global Integration: A Dream to be Fulfilled," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number pa86.
    5. Thorvaldur Gylfason & Per Magnus Wijkman, 2012. "Which Conflicts can the European Neighbourhood Policy Help Resolve?," CESifo Working Paper Series 3861, CESifo.
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    Cited by:

    1. Hauwah K. K. Abdulkareem & Sodiq Olaiwola Jimoh & Ebenezer Olubiyi, 2023. "Trade–peace conundrum in Africa: The moderating effects of poverty and inequality," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 35(4), pages 323-335, December.
    2. Esmat Mostafa Kamel, 2021. "The MENA region's need for more democracy and less bureaucracy: A gravity model controlling for aspects of governance and trade freedom in MENA," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(6), pages 1885-1912, June.

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