IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/applec/v39y2007i17p2197-2209.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

How the ECB and the US Fed set interest rates

Author

Listed:
  • Ansgar Belke
  • Thorsten Polleit

Abstract

Monetary policies of the European Central Bank (ECB) and US Fed can be characterized by 'Taylor rules', that is both central banks seem to be setting rates by taking into account the 'output gap' and inflation. We also set up and tested Taylor rules which incorporate money growth and the euro-dollar exchange rate, thereby improving the 'fit' between actual and Taylor rule based rates. In general, Taylor rules appear to be a much better way of describing Fed policy than ECB policy. Simulations suggest that the ECB's short-term interest rates have been at a much lower level in the last 2 years compared with what a Taylor rule would suggest.

Suggested Citation

  • Ansgar Belke & Thorsten Polleit, 2007. "How the ECB and the US Fed set interest rates," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(17), pages 2197-2209.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:39:y:2007:i:17:p:2197-2209
    DOI: 10.1080/00036840600749623
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/00036840600749623
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/00036840600749623?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-1054, July.
    2. Carstensen Kai, 2006. "Estimating the ECB Policy Reaction Function," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 7(1), pages 1-34, February.
    3. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 115(1), pages 147-180.
    4. Coenen, Gunter & Levin, Andrew & Wieland, Volker, 2005. "Data uncertainty and the role of money as an information variable for monetary policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(4), pages 975-1006, May.
    5. Reichlin, Lucrezia & Sala, Luca & Giannone, Domenico, 2002. "Tracking Greenspan: Systematic and Unsystematic Monetary Policy Revisited," CEPR Discussion Papers 3550, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Ho-Chuan Huang & Shu-Chin Lin, 2006. "Time-varying discrete monetary policy reaction functions," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(4), pages 449-464.
    7. Mark Gertler & Jordi Gali & Richard Clarida, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December.
    8. Nicoletti Altimari, Sergio, 2001. "Does money lead inflation in the euro area?," Working Paper Series 63, European Central Bank.
    9. Richard H. Clarida & Mark Gertler, 1997. "How the Bundesbank Conducts Monetary Policy," NBER Chapters, in: Reducing Inflation: Motivation and Strategy, pages 363-412, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Ansgar Belke & Daniel Gros, 2005. "Asymmetries in Transatlantic Monetary Policy‐making: Does the ECB Follow the Fed?," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(5), pages 921-946, December.
    11. Orphanides, Athanasios, 2004. "Monetary Policy Rules, Macroeconomic Stability, and Inflation: A View from the Trenches," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(2), pages 151-175, April.
    12. Atsushi Inoue & Lutz Kilian, 2005. "In-Sample or Out-of-Sample Tests of Predictability: Which One Should We Use?," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(4), pages 371-402.
    13. John B. Taylor, 1999. "A Historical Analysis of Monetary Policy Rules," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 319-348, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Kai Carstensen, 2006. "Estimating the ECB Policy Reaction Function," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 7(1), pages 1-34, February.
    15. Ben S. Bernanke & Michael Woodford, 1997. "Inflation forecasts and monetary policy," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 653-686.
    16. Carlo Altavilla & Luigi Landolfo, 2005. "Do central banks act asymmetrically? Empirical evidence from the ECB and the Bank of England," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(5), pages 507-519.
    17. Löchel, Horst & Baumann, Stefan, 2006. "The endogeneity approach of the theory of optimum currency areas: what does it mean for ASEAN + 3?," Frankfurt School - Working Paper Series 70, Frankfurt School of Finance and Management.
    18. Ansgar Belke, 2002. "Does the ECB Follow the FED?," Diskussionspapiere aus dem Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre der Universität Hohenheim 211/2002, Department of Economics, University of Hohenheim, Germany.
    19. John B. Taylor, 2001. "The Role of the Exchange Rate in Monetary-Policy Rules," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 263-267, May.
    20. Jon Faust & John H. Rogers & Jonathan H. Wright, 2001. "An empirical comparison of Bundesbank and ECB monetary policy rules," International Finance Discussion Papers 705, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    21. Taylor, John B., 1999. "The robustness and efficiency of monetary policy rules as guidelines for interest rate setting by the European central bank," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 655-679, June.
    22. Paolo Surico, 2003. "Asymmetric Reaction Functions for the Euro Area," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 19(1), pages 44-57.
    23. Taylor, John B. (ed.), 2001. "Monetary Policy Rules," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, edition 1, number 9780226791258.
    24. André Sapir & Marco Buti, 1998. "Economic policy in EMU," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/8078, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    25. Mark Gertler & Jordi Gali & Richard Clarida, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December.
    26. Ullrich, Katrin, 2003. "A Comparison Between the Fed and the ECB: Taylor Rules," ZEW Discussion Papers 03-19, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    27. Stephan Sauer & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2003. "Using Taylor Rules to Understand ECB Monetary Policy," CESifo Working Paper Series 1110, CESifo.
    28. Gerlach, Stefan & Schnabel, Gert, 2000. "The Taylor rule and interest rates in the EMU area," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 165-171, May.
    29. Surico, Paolo, 2003. "How does the ECB target inflation?," Working Paper Series 229, European Central Bank.
    30. Colavecchio, Roberta & Carstensen, Kai, 2004. "Did the Revision of the ECB Monetary Policy Strategy Affect the Reaction Function?," Kiel Working Papers 1221, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    31. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 1995. "The Mirage of Fixed Exchange Rates," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 73-96, Fall.
    32. Efrem Castelnuovo, 2006. "Describing The Fed’S Conduct With Taylor Rules: Is Interest Rate Smoothing Important?," The IUP Journal of Monetary Economics, IUP Publications, vol. 0(3), pages 57-77, August.
    33. Lemke, Wolfgang & Greiber, Claus, 2005. "Money demand and macroeconomic uncertainty," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005,26, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    34. Rudebusch, Glenn D., 2002. "Term structure evidence on interest rate smoothing and monetary policy inertia," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1161-1187, September.
    35. Gerlach-Kristen, Petra, 2003. "Interest rate reaction functions and the Taylor rule in the euro area," Working Paper Series 258, European Central Bank.
    36. Clarida, Richard & Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1998. "Monetary policy rules in practice Some international evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(6), pages 1033-1067, June.
    37. Orphanides, Athanasios, 2004. "Monetary Policy Rules, Macroeconomic Stability, and Inflation: A View from the Trenches," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(2), pages 151-175, April.
    38. Clausen, Volker & Hayo, Bernd, 2002. "Monetary policy in the Euro area: Lessons from the first years," ZEI Working Papers B 09-2002, University of Bonn, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies.
    39. Giorgio Valente, 2003. "Monetary policy rules and regime shifts," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(7), pages 525-535.
    40. Gerdesmeier, Dieter & Roffia, Barbara, 2003. "Empirical estimates of reaction functions for the euro area," Working Paper Series 206, European Central Bank.
    41. Favero, Carlo A., 2001. "Applied Macroeconometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198296850, Decembrie.
    42. Scott, Alasdair, 2003. "APPLIED MACROECONOMETRICS Carlo A. Favero Oxford University Press, 2001," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(2), pages 313-315, April.
    43. Jeffery D. Amato & Thomas Laubach, 1999. "The value of interest rate smoothing : how the private sector helps the Federal Reserve," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 84(Q III), pages 47-64.
    44. Laurence M. Ball, 1999. "Policy Rules for Open Economies," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 127-156, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    45. Pierdzioch, Christian & Kamps, Christophe, 2002. "Geldpolitik und vorausschauende Taylor-Regeln: Theorie und Empirie am Beispiel der Deutschen Bundesbank," Kiel Working Papers 1089, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    46. Anna Florio, 2005. "Asymmetric monetary policy: empirical evidence for Italy," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(7), pages 751-764.
    47. Michael Woodford, 2001. "The Taylor Rule and Optimal Monetary Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 232-237, May.
    48. Volker Clausen & Bernd Hayo, 2005. "Monetary policy in the Euro area – lessons from the first years," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 1(4), pages 349-364, January.
    49. John B. Taylor, 1999. "Monetary Policy Rules," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number tayl99-1, July.
    50. Fourcans, Andre & Vranceanu, Radu, 2004. "The ECB interest rate rule under the Duisenberg presidency," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 579-595, September.
    51. Ansgar Belke & Daniel Gros, 2005. "Asymmetries in the Trans-Atlantic Monetary Policy Relationship: Does the ECB follow the Fed?," CESifo Working Paper Series 1428, CESifo.
    52. Gert Peersman & Frank Smets, 1999. "Uncertainty and the Taylor rule in a simple model of the Euro-area economy," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    53. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
    54. Marco Buti & André Sapir (ed.), 2002. "EMU and Economic Policy in Europe," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 2871, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ansgar Belke & Wim Kösters & Martin Leschke & Thorsten Polleit, 2005. "Back to the rules," Diskussionspapiere aus dem Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre der Universität Hohenheim 268/2005, Department of Economics, University of Hohenheim, Germany.
    2. Colavecchio, Roberta & Carstensen, Kai, 2004. "Did the Revision of the ECB Monetary Policy Strategy Affect the Reaction Function?," Kiel Working Papers 1221, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    3. Stephan Sauer & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2003. "Using Taylor Rules to Understand ECB Monetary Policy," CESifo Working Paper Series 1110, CESifo.
    4. Stephan Sauer & Jan‐Egbert Sturm, 2007. "Using Taylor Rules to Understand European Central Bank Monetary Policy," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 8(3), pages 375-398, August.
    5. Carlo Rosa, 2009. "Forecasting the Direction of Policy Rate Changes: The Importance of ECB Words," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 38(1‐2), pages 39-66, February.
    6. Gerberding, Christina & Worms, Andreas & Seitz, Franz, 2004. "How the Bundesbank really conducted monetary policy: An analysis based on real-time data," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2004,25, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    7. Stephan Sauer & Jan‐Egbert Sturm, 2007. "Using Taylor Rules to Understand European Central Bank Monetary Policy," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 8(3), pages 375-398, August.
    8. Travaglini, Guido, 2007. "The U.S. Dynamic Taylor Rule With Multiple Breaks, 1984-2001," MPRA Paper 3419, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 15 Jun 2007.
    9. Fourcans, Andre & Vranceanu, Radu, 2004. "The ECB interest rate rule under the Duisenberg presidency," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 579-595, September.
    10. Janko Gorter & Jan Jacobs & Jakob de Haan, 2007. "Taylor Rules for the ECB using Consensus Data," DNB Working Papers 160, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    11. Luís, Pacheco, 2004. "Asset Prices and Monetary Policy in the Euro Area: a tentative model," MPRA Paper 6579, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Jagjit S. Chadha & Lucio Sarno & Giorgio Valente, 2004. "Monetary Policy Rules, Asset Prices, and Exchange Rates," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 51(3), pages 529-552, November.
    13. repec:kap:iaecre:v:14:y:2008:i:2:p:156-166 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Mahir Binici & Yin-Wong Cheung, 2011. "Exchange Rate Dynamics Under Alternative Optimal Interest Rate Rules," Working Papers 362011, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    15. Ruth, Karsten, 2004. "Interest rate reaction functions for the euro area Evidence from panel data analysis," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2004,33, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    16. Annicchiarico, Barbara & Giammarioli, Nicola & Piergallini, Alessandro, 2012. "Budgetary policies in a DSGE model with finite horizons," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 111-130.
    17. Wollmershauser, Timo, 2006. "Should central banks react to exchange rate movements? An analysis of the robustness of simple policy rules under exchange rate uncertainty," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 493-519, September.
    18. Jesus Garcia-Iglesias, 2007. "How the European Central Bank decided its early monetary policy?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(7), pages 927-936.
    19. Chaouech, Olfa, 2015. "Taylor rule in practice : Evidence from tunisia," MPRA Paper 66771, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 18 Sep 2015.
    20. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Helmi, Mohamad Husam & Çatık, Abdurrahman Nazif & Menla Ali, Faek & Akdeniz, Coşkun, 2018. "Monetary policy rules in emerging countries: Is there an augmented nonlinear taylor rule?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 306-319.
    21. Gerdesmeier, Dieter & Roffia, Barbara, 2004. "Taylor rules for the euro area: the issue of real-time data," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2004,37, Deutsche Bundesbank.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:39:y:2007:i:17:p:2197-2209. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/RAEC20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.