IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/applec/v31y1999i4p483-491.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Asymmetries and nonlinearities in Italian macroeconomic fluctuations

Author

Listed:
  • Luca Stanca

Abstract

This paper reports the results of an empirical investigation of business cycle asymmetries in the Italian economy. Macroeconomic time series, both annual post-Unity and quarterly post-world war II, are subjected to nonlinearity and asymmetry tests. The dynamics of recessions and expansions are then modelled with threshold autoregressive and Markov-switching models. The paper shows that allowing for two regimes is sufficient to account for the finding of neglected nonlinearity. The results indicate that business cycle asymmetries can provide both an intuitive economic interpretation and a parsimonious representation of nonlinearities in macroeconomic time series.

Suggested Citation

  • Luca Stanca, 1999. "Asymmetries and nonlinearities in Italian macroeconomic fluctuations," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(4), pages 483-491.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:31:y:1999:i:4:p:483-491
    DOI: 10.1080/000368499324192
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/000368499324192
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/000368499324192?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Wesley Clair Mitchell, 1927. "Business Cycles: The Problem and Its Setting," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number mitc27-1, July.
    2. Wesley Clair Mitchell, 1927. "Introductory pages to "Business Cycles: The Problem and Its Setting"," NBER Chapters, in: Business Cycles: The Problem and Its Setting, pages -23, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Michael D. Boldin, 1992. "Using switching models to study business cycle asymmetries: 1. overview of methodology and application," Research Paper 9211, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jane Binner & Rakesh Bissoondeeal & Thomas Elger & Alicia Gazely & Andrew Mullineux, 2005. "A comparison of linear forecasting models and neural networks: an application to Euro inflation and Euro Divisia," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(6), pages 665-680.
    2. Martha Misas & María Teresa Ramírez, 2006. "Colombian economic growth under Markov switching regimes with endogenous transition probabilities," Borradores de Economia 2148, Banco de la Republica.
    3. Mohamed Osman & Ariful Hoque & Kamrul Hassan, 2016. "Business Cycle Asymmetries and Nonlinearity in UAE Macroeconomic Time Series," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55(4), pages 476-490, December.
    4. Martha Misas & Maria Teresa Ramirez, 2007. "Depressions in the Colombian economic growth during the twentieth century: a Markov switching regime model," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(11), pages 803-808.
    5. Mark J. Holmes & Maghrebi Nabil, 2002. "Non-Linearities, Regime Switching and the Relationship Between Asian Equity and Foreign Exchange Markets," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(4), pages 121-139.
    6. Matteo Manera & Alessandro Cologni, 2006. "The Asymmetric Effects of Oil Shocks on Output Growth: A Markov-Switching Analysis for the G-7 Countries," Working Papers 2006.29, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    7. Yaya, OlaOluwa S & Ogbonna, Ephraim A & Furuoka, Fumitaka & Gil-Alana, Luis A., 2019. "A new unit root analysis for testing hysteresis in unemployment," MPRA Paper 96621, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Costanza Torricelli & Marianna Brunetti, 2006. "Economic activity and Recession Probabilities: spread predictive power in Italy," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 350, Society for Computational Economics.
    9. Ming-Yuan Leon Li & Hsiou-Wei William Lin & Rau Hsiu-hua, 2005. "The performance of the Markov-switching model on business cycle identification revisited," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(8), pages 513-520.
    10. Sella Lisa, 2008. "Old and New Spectral Techniques for Economic Time Series," Department of Economics and Statistics Cognetti de Martiis. Working Papers 200809, University of Turin.
    11. Manera, Matteo & Cologni, Alessandro, 2006. "The Asymmetric Effects of Oil Shocks on Output Growth: A Markov-Switching Analysis," International Energy Markets Working Papers 12121, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Veaceslav Grigoras & Irina Eusignia Stanciu, 2016. "New evidence on the (de)synchronisation of business cycles: Reshaping the European business cycle," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 147, pages 27-52.
    2. Stéphane Dupraz & Emi Nakamura & Jón Steinsson, 2019. "A Plucking Model of Business Cycles," NBER Working Papers 26351, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Arthur F. Burns, 1969. "The Nature and Causes of Business Cycles," NBER Chapters, in: The Business Cycle in a Changing World, pages 3-53, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Tamotsu Onozaki, 2018. "Nonlinearity, Bounded Rationality, and Heterogeneity," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-4-431-54971-0, June.
    5. Silva, Aldy Fernandes da & Weffort, Elionor Farah Jreige & Flores, Eduardo da Silva & Silva, Glauco Peres da, 2014. "Gerenciamento de resultados e crises econômicas no mercado de capitais brasileiro," RAE - Revista de Administração de Empresas, FGV-EAESP Escola de Administração de Empresas de São Paulo (Brazil), vol. 54(3), May.
    6. Sinclair Tara M, 2009. "Asymmetry in the Business Cycle: Friedman's Plucking Model with Correlated Innovations," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 14(1), pages 1-31, December.
    7. Mach Łukasz & Dąbrowski Ireneusz & Wotzka Daria & Frącz Paweł, 2023. "The Identification of Seasonality in the Housing Market Using the X13-ARIMA-SEATS Model," Econometrics. Advances in Applied Data Analysis, Sciendo, vol. 27(4), pages 29-43, December.
    8. Marlon Fritz & Thomas Gries & Yuanhua Feng, 2019. "Growth Trends and Systematic Patterns of Booms and Busts‐Testing 200 Years of Business Cycle Dynamics," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 81(1), pages 62-78, February.
    9. Pablo Mejía-Reyes & Reyna Vergara-González, 2017. "Are More Severe Recessions Followed by Stronger Early Expansions of Employment in the Mexican States?," The Review of Regional Studies, Southern Regional Science Association, vol. 47(3), pages 243-269, Fall.
    10. Valerie Cerra & Antonio Fatás & Sweta C. Saxena, 2023. "Hysteresis and Business Cycles," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 61(1), pages 181-225, March.
    11. Kurt Brännäs & Henry Ohlsson, 1999. "Asymmetric Time Series and Temporal Aggregation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(2), pages 341-344, May.
    12. Galbács Peter, 2021. "What did it take for Lucas to set up ‘useful’ analogue systems in monetary business cycle theory?," Economics and Business Review, Sciendo, vol. 7(3), pages 61-82, September.
    13. Olkhov, Victor, 2018. "Economic Transactions Govern Business Cycles," MPRA Paper 87207, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Nandini Chandar & Paul Miranti, 2009. "Integrating accounting and statistics: Forecasting, budgeting and production planning at the American Telephone and Telegraph Company during the 1920s," Accounting and Business Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(4), pages 373-395.
    15. Malcolm Rutherford, 2001. "Institutional Economics: Then and Now," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(3), pages 173-194, Summer.
    16. Victor Zarnowitz, 1991. "What is a Business Cycle?," NBER Working Papers 3863, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. McKay, Alisdair & Reis, Ricardo, 2008. "The brevity and violence of contractions and expansions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(4), pages 738-751, May.
    18. Doshchyn, Artur & Giommetti, Nicola, 2013. "Learning, Expectations, and Endogenous Business Cycles," MPRA Paper 49617, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Wesley C. Mitchell & Malcolm Rutherford, 1995. "The Criticism of Modern Civilization," Journal of Economic Issues, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(3), pages 663-666, September.
    20. repec:ilo:ilowps:278801 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Boumans, Marcel & Morgan, Mary S., 2023. "Do you see it this way? Visualising as a tool of sense-making," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 120216, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:31:y:1999:i:4:p:483-491. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/RAEC20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.