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Occupant death: a study with directed graphs

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  • Jae-Whak Roh
  • David Bessler

Abstract

We apply directed graphs to an empirical analysis of traffic occupant fatalities based on a model by Crandall. In this paper, we use Crandall's data on US traffic fatalities for the period 1947-81 and extend the sample to include 1982-93. Based on the 1947-81 annual data, directed graph algorithms reveal that occupant traffic deaths are directly caused by income, vehicle miles, and safety devices. Vehicle mileage is caused by income and rural driving. Estimation is conducted using three stage least squares regression. Results show a difference between the traditional regression methodology and causal graphical analysis. We also find that forecasts from the directed graph model outperform forecasts from the regression-based models, in terms of mean squared forecasts error.

Suggested Citation

  • Jae-Whak Roh & David Bessler, 1999. "Occupant death: a study with directed graphs," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(5), pages 303-306.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:6:y:1999:i:5:p:303-306
    DOI: 10.1080/135048599353285
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    2. Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July.
    3. Peltzman, Sam, 1975. "The Effects of Automobile Safety Regulation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 83(4), pages 677-725, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Miljkovic, Dragan & Dalbec, Nathan & Zhang, Lei, 2016. "Estimating dynamics of US demand for major fossil fuels," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 284-291.
    2. Jin Zhang & David Bessler & David Leatham, 2006. "Does consumer debt cause economic recession? Evidence using directed acyclic graphs," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(7), pages 401-407.
    3. Kim, GwanSeon & Choi, Sun-Ki & Seok, Jun Ho, 2020. "Does biomass energy consumption reduce total energy CO2 emissions in the US?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 42(5), pages 953-967.
    4. Perez, Stephen J. & Siegler, Mark V., 2006. "Agricultural and monetary shocks before the great depression: A graph-theoretic causal investigation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 720-736, December.
    5. Seok, Jun Ho & Kim, GwanSeon & Reed, Michael R. & Kim, Soo-Eun, 2018. "The impact of avian influenza on the Korean egg market: Who benefited?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 151-165.

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