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Structural change and unit root testing: British industrial production 1700-1913

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  • David Greasley
  • Les Oxley

Abstract

This paper considers unit root tests of the index of British industrial production 1700-1913. For the full sample the data are found to be I(1). However, three distinct phases are identified with alternating stationarity properties. One period, 1780-1851, is identified as the British Industrial Revolution. The results support the findings of Perron (1989) and Reichlin (1989) on the dangers of unit root testing in models with structural change.

Suggested Citation

  • David Greasley & Les Oxley, 1994. "Structural change and unit root testing: British industrial production 1700-1913," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(3), pages 39-40.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:1:y:1994:i:3:p:39-40
    DOI: 10.1080/135048594358267
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Reichlin, Lucrezia, 1989. "Structural change and unit root econometrics," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 231-233, December.
    2. Walton, David R., 1988. "Does GNP have a unit root? : Evidence for the UK," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 219-224.
    3. Hausman, William J. & Watts, James M., 1980. "Structural change in the 18th-century British economy: A test using cubic splines," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 400-410, October.
    4. Nelson, Charles R. & Plosser, Charles I., 1982. "Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series : Some evidence and implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 139-162.
    5. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    6. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
    7. Inwood, Kris & Stengos, Thanasis, 1991. "Discontinuities in Canadian economic growth, 1870-1985," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 274-286, July.
    8. Schwert, G. William, 1987. "Effects of model specification on tests for unit roots in macroeconomic data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 73-103, July.
    9. Rappoport, Peter & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 1989. "Segmented Trends and Non-stationary Time Series," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(395), pages 168-177, Supplemen.
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    Cited by:

    1. David Greasley & Les Oxley, 2010. "Cliometrics And Time Series Econometrics: Some Theory And Applications," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(5), pages 970-1042, December.

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