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The role of methane in future climate strategies: mitigation potentials and climate impacts

Author

Listed:
  • Mathijs Harmsen

    (PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
    Utrecht University)

  • Detlef P. Vuuren

    (PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
    Utrecht University)

  • Benjamin Leon Bodirsky

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK))

  • Jean Chateau

    (OECD Environment Directorate)

  • Olivier Durand-Lasserve

    (OECD Environment Directorate)

  • Laurent Drouet

    (RFF-CMCC European Institute on Economics and the Environment (EIEE), Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici)

  • Oliver Fricko

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis)

  • Shinichiro Fujimori

    (Kyoto University
    National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES))

  • David E. H. J. Gernaat

    (PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
    Utrecht University)

  • Tatsuya Hanaoka

    (National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES))

  • Jérôme Hilaire

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)
    Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change (MCC))

  • Kimon Keramidas

    (Edificio Expo, Calle Inca Garcilaso)

  • Gunnar Luderer

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK))

  • Maria Cecilia P. Moura

    (Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory)

  • Fuminori Sano

    (Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth (RITE))

  • Steven J. Smith

    (Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory)

  • Kenichi Wada

    (Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth (RITE))

Abstract

This study examines model-specific assumptions and projections of methane (CH4) emissions in deep mitigation scenarios generated by integrated assessment models (IAMs). For this, scenarios of nine models are compared in terms of sectoral and regional CH4 emission reduction strategies, as well as resulting climate impacts. The models’ projected reduction potentials are compared to sector and technology-specific reduction potentials found in literature. Significant cost-effective and non-climate policy related reductions are projected in the reference case (10–36% compared to a “frozen emission factor” scenario in 2100). Still, compared to 2010, CH4 emissions are expected to rise steadily by 9–72% (up to 412 to 654 Mt CH4/year). Ambitious CO2 reduction measures could by themselves lead to a reduction of CH4 emissions due to a reduction of fossil fuels (22–48% compared to the reference case in 2100). However, direct CH4 mitigation is crucial and more effective in bringing down CH4 (50–74% compared to the reference case). Given the limited reduction potential, agriculture CH4 emissions are projected to constitute an increasingly larger share of total anthropogenic CH4 emissions in mitigation scenarios. Enteric fermentation in ruminants is in that respect by far the largest mitigation bottleneck later in the century with a projected 40–78% of total remaining CH4 emissions in 2100 in a strong (2 °C) climate policy case.

Suggested Citation

  • Mathijs Harmsen & Detlef P. Vuuren & Benjamin Leon Bodirsky & Jean Chateau & Olivier Durand-Lasserve & Laurent Drouet & Oliver Fricko & Shinichiro Fujimori & David E. H. J. Gernaat & Tatsuya Hanaoka &, 2020. "The role of methane in future climate strategies: mitigation potentials and climate impacts," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 163(3), pages 1409-1425, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:163:y:2020:i:3:d:10.1007_s10584-019-02437-2
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-019-02437-2
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Mathijs Harmsen & Detlef Vuuren & Maarten Berg & Andries Hof & Chris Hope & Volker Krey & Jean-Francois Lamarque & Adriana Marcucci & Drew Shindell & Michiel Schaeffer, 2015. "How well do integrated assessment models represent non-CO 2 radiative forcing?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 133(4), pages 565-582, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Mathijs Harmsen & Charlotte Tabak & Lena Höglund-Isaksson & Florian Humpenöder & Pallav Purohit & Detlef Vuuren, 2023. "Uncertainty in non-CO2 greenhouse gas mitigation contributes to ambiguity in global climate policy feasibility," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-14, December.
    2. Bożena Gajdzik & Katarzyna Tobór-Osadnik & Radosław Wolniak & Wiesław Wes Grebski, 2024. "European Climate Policy in the Context of the Problem of Methane Emissions from Coal Mines in Poland," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(10), pages 1-28, May.
    3. Weiwei Xiong & Katsumasa Tanaka & Philippe Ciais & Liang Yan, 2022. "Evaluating China’s Role in Achieving the 1.5 °C Target of the Paris Agreement," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(16), pages 1-17, August.

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