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National Institute Economic Forecasts 1968 to 1991: Some Tests of Forecast Properties

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  • Nigel Pain
  • Andrew Britton

Abstract

From time to time the Institute has published in the Review assessments of its economic forecasts based on statistical analysis of their relation with the outturn data. The most recent examples are Savage (1983) for GDP forecasts and NIESR (1984) for inflation. A more extensive analysis has now been carried out covering quarterly forecasts over the period from 1968 to 1991 for a range of economic variables. The full results are reported in Pain and Britton (1992). This note summarises some of the main findings.
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  • Nigel Pain & Andrew Britton, 1992. "National Institute Economic Forecasts 1968 to 1991: Some Tests of Forecast Properties," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 141(1), pages 81-93, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:niesru:v:141:y:1992:i:1:p:81-93
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    Cited by:

    1. S Cook, 2011. "An historical perspective on the forecasting performance of the Treasury Model: Forecasting the growth in UK consumers' expenditure," Post-Print hal-00665455, HAL.

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