IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/millen/v4y2013i1p87-108.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Trade Dynamics in the East Asian Miracle: A Time Series Analysis of US–East Asia Commodity Trade, 1962–1992

Author

Listed:
  • Terrie Carolan
  • Jesse Mora
  • Nirvikar Singh

Abstract

This article examines the composition of bilateral trade between the United States and eight Asian Pacific economies from 1962 to 1992. Two complementary time series analyses of individual commodities at the SITC four-digit level indicate that significant changes occurred in trade composition during this period. It uses a measure of normalized trade balances, developed by Gagnon and Rose (1995). For the eight bilateral trade relationships, commodities representing 50 to 70 per cent of 1992 dollar trade have shown statistically significant changes in the magnitude and, in some cases, in the direction of normalized trade balances, over the 30-year period. Results support the conclusion that changes in trade patterns in both low-tech industries, such as textiles and clothing and more high-tech industries, such as electronic parts and electronic goods, were important in the development of the East Asian economies.

Suggested Citation

  • Terrie Carolan & Jesse Mora & Nirvikar Singh, 2013. "Trade Dynamics in the East Asian Miracle: A Time Series Analysis of US–East Asia Commodity Trade, 1962–1992," Millennial Asia, , vol. 4(1), pages 87-108, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:millen:v:4:y:2013:i:1:p:87-108
    DOI: 10.1177/0976399613480894
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0976399613480894
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/0976399613480894?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
    2. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S, 1995. "Lag Order and Critical Values of the Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(3), pages 277-280, July.
    3. Carter, Colin A. & Li, Xianghong, 2002. "Implications of World Trade Organisation accession for China’s agricultural trade patterns," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 46(2), pages 1-15.
    4. Gagnon, Joseph E & Rose, Andrew K, 1995. "Dynamic Persistence of Industry Trade Balances: How Pervasive Is the Product Cycle?," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 47(2), pages 229-248, April.
    5. Athukorala, Prema-chandra & Yamashita, Nobuaki, 2006. "Production fragmentation and trade integration: East Asia in a global context," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 233-256, December.
    6. Ng, Francis & Yeats, Alexander, 2003. "Major trade trends in East Asia : what are their implications for regional cooperation and growth," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3084, The World Bank.
    7. Lawrence Krause, 1987. "The Structure of Trade in Manufactured Goods in the East and Southeast Asian Region," NBER Chapters, in: Trade and Structural Change in Pacific Asia, pages 205-226, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Chinn, Menzie D, 1997. "Further Investigation of the Uncertain Unit Root in GNP," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 15(1), pages 68-73, January.
    9. Colin I. Bradford, Jr. & William H. Branson, 1987. "Trade and Structural Change in Pacific Asia," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number brad87-1, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Singh, Nirvikar & Mora, Jesse & Carolan, Terrie, 2012. "Trade Dynamics in the East Asian Miracle: A Time Series Analysis of U.S.-East Asia Commodity Trade, 1962-1992," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt0fm1r83r, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
    2. Nirvikar Singh & Terrie Carolan, 2004. "Time Series Analysis Of U.S.-East Asia Commodity Trade, 1962-1992," International Trade 0412003, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Carolan, Terrie & Singh, Nirvikar & Talati, Cyrus, 1998. "The composition of U.S.-East Asia trade and changing comparative advantage," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(2), pages 361-389.
    4. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Chinn, Menzie D, 1997. "Further Investigation of the Uncertain Unit Root in GNP," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 15(1), pages 68-73, January.
    5. Tang, Chor Foon & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2011. "Revisiting the Electricity Consumption-Growth Nexus for Portugal: Evidence from a Multivariate Framework Analysis," MPRA Paper 28393, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Francis Ahking, 2003. "Efficient unit root tests of real exchange rates in the post-Bretton Woods era," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 6(7), pages 1-12.
    7. Lurong Chen, 2012. "The BRICs in the Global Value Chains: An Empirical Note," Revista Cuadernos de Economia, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, FCE, CID, August.
    8. Josep Lluis Carrion Silvestre & Tomas del Barrio Castro & Enrique Lopez Bazo, 2002. "Level shifts in a panel data based unit root test. An application to the rate of unemployment," Working Papers in Economics 79, Universitat de Barcelona. Espai de Recerca en Economia.
    9. Richard Baldwin & Toshihiro Okubo, 2014. "Networked FDI: Sales and Sourcing Patterns of Japanese Foreign Affiliates," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(8), pages 1051-1080, August.
    10. Tri WIDODO & Diyah PUTRIANI, 2011. "RMB Devaluation and Asean5 Countries’ Exports to the US: Complementary or Substitute?," Review of Economic and Business Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, issue 8, pages 169-184, December.
    11. Darne, Olivier & Diebolt, Claude, 2004. "Unit roots and infrequent large shocks: new international evidence on output," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(7), pages 1449-1465, October.
    12. repec:pra:mprapa:15377 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Guillaume Daudin & Christine Rifflart & Danielle Schweisguth, 2011. "Who produces for whom in the world economy?," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 44(4), pages 1403-1437, November.
    14. Murray, Christian J. & Nelson, Charles R., 2000. "The uncertain trend in U.S. GDP," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 79-95, August.
    15. Hooy, Chee-Wooi & Siong-Hook, Law & Tze-Haw, Chan, 2015. "The impact of the Renminbi real exchange rate on ASEAN disaggregated exports to China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 253-259.
    16. Guillaume Daudin & Christine Rifflart & Danielle Schweisguth, 2008. "Value-Added Trade and Regionalization. GTAP Eleventh Annual Conference 'Future of Global Economy', Helsinki, Finland," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/9541, Sciences Po.
    17. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Ng, Lilian K., 1998. "International evidence on the stock market and aggregate economic activity," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 281-296, September.
    18. Ervani, Eva & Widodo, Tri & M. Purnawan, Edhie, 2018. "East Asia’s Pattern of Export Specialization: Does Indonesia Compete with Japan, China, Hong Kong, Korea and Singapore?," MPRA Paper 85259, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/9541 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Olivier Darné & Jean‐François Hoarau, 2007. "Further Evidence On Mean Reversion In The Australian Exchange Rate," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 59(4), pages 383-395, October.
    21. Caner, M. & Kilian, L., 2001. "Size distortions of tests of the null hypothesis of stationarity: evidence and implications for the PPP debate," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 639-657, October.
    22. Yung Chul Park & Won-Am Park, 1991. "Changing Japanese Trade Patterns and the East Asian NICs," NBER Chapters, in: Trade with Japan: Has the Door Opened Wider?, pages 85-120, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:millen:v:4:y:2013:i:1:p:87-108. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.