IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/jospec/v25y2024i3p346-368.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Should I Stay or Should I Go Pro? Early NFL Draft Entry by NCAA FBS Underclassmen

Author

Listed:
  • Brad R. Humphreys
  • Yulia Chikish
  • Peter von Allmen

Abstract

Some college players face the tradeoff between continuing their education and entering the draft and forfeiting college eligibility. Little empirical research focuses on this “stay or go pro†decision. We analyze early draft entry decisions made by college football underclassmen with remaining eligibility over the 2007/08-2018/19 seasons. Regression results support both the human capital explanation for early draft entry in that players acquiring more human capital in the previous season by playing in more games increases the likelihood of early entry and the option value perspective in that playing on a more successful team increases the likelihood of early entry.

Suggested Citation

  • Brad R. Humphreys & Yulia Chikish & Peter von Allmen, 2024. "Should I Stay or Should I Go Pro? Early NFL Draft Entry by NCAA FBS Underclassmen," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 25(3), pages 346-368, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:jospec:v:25:y:2024:i:3:p:346-368
    DOI: 10.1177/15270025231222632
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/15270025231222632
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/15270025231222632?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jeremy Rosen & Alexandre Olbrecht, 2020. "Data‐Driven Drafting: Applying Econometrics To Employ Quarterbacks," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 38(2), pages 313-326, April.
    2. Ichniowski, Casey & Preston, Anne, 2017. "Does March Madness lead to irrational exuberance in the NBA draft? High-value employee selection decisions and decision-making bias," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 105-119.
    3. Akira Motomura & Kelsey V. Roberts & Daniel M. Leeds & Michael A. Leeds, 2016. "Does It Pay to Build Through the Draft in the National Basketball Association?," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 17(5), pages 501-516, June.
    4. Carl T. Kitchens, 2015. "Are Winners Promoted Too Often? Evidence From The Nfl Draft 1999–2012," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 53(2), pages 1317-1330, April.
    5. Daniel Slottje, 2010. "Human Capital Measurement: Theory And Practice," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(2), pages 201-205, April.
    6. Peter A. Groothuis & James Richard Hill & Timothy J. Perri, 2007. "Early Entry in the NBA Draft," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 8(3), pages 223-243, June.
    7. Jason A. Winfree & Christopher J. Molitor, 2007. "The Value of College," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 8(4), pages 378-393, August.
    8. J.D. Pitts & B. Evans, 2018. "Evidence on the importance of cognitive ability tests for NFL quarterbacks: what are the relationships among Wonderlic scores, draft positions and NFL performance outcomes?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(27), pages 2957-2966, June.
    9. Barbara Arel & Michael J. Tomas III, 2012. "The NBA Draft," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 13(3), pages 223-249, June.
    10. Wallace Hendricks & Lawrence DeBrock & Roger Koenker, 2003. "Uncertainty, Hiring, and Subsequent Performance: The NFL Draft," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 21(4), pages 857-886, October.
    11. Cade Massey & Richard H. Thaler, 2013. "The Loser's Curse: Decision Making and Market Efficiency in the National Football League Draft," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 59(7), pages 1479-1495, July.
    12. Giuseppe Folloni & Giorgio Vittadini, 2010. "Human Capital Measurement: A Survey," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(2), pages 248-279, April.
    13. Christopher R. Bollinger & Julie L. Hotchkiss, 2003. "The Upside Potential of Hiring Risky Workers: Evidence from the Baseball Industry," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 21(4), pages 923-944, October.
    14. Grier, Kevin B. & Tollison, Robert D., 1994. "The rookie draft and competitive balance: The case of professional football," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 293-298, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Tobias Berger & Frank Daumann, 2021. "Anchoring bias in the evaluation of basketball players: A closer look at NBA draft decision‐making," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(5), pages 1248-1262, July.
    2. Craig, J. Dean & Winchester, Niven, 2021. "Predicting the national football league potential of college quarterbacks," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 295(2), pages 733-743.
    3. Joshua D. Pitts & Brent A. Evans, 2023. "New contracts and dismissal threats from highly drafted rookies: What motivates NFL quarterbacks?," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(1), pages 4-16, January.
    4. Barbara Arel & Michael J. Tomas III, 2012. "The NBA Draft," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 13(3), pages 223-249, June.
    5. Richard J. Paulsen, 2022. "Peer effects and human capital accumulation: Time spent in college and productivity in the National Basketball Association," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(8), pages 3611-3619, December.
    6. Heather Mitchell & Constantino Stavros & Mark F. Stewart, 2011. "Does the Australian Football League Draft Undervalue Indigenous Australian Footballers?," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 12(1), pages 36-54, February.
    7. Joshua D. Pitts & Brent Evans, 2019. "Drafting for Success: How Good Are NFL Teams at Identifying Future Productivity at Offensive-Skill Positions in the Draft?," The American Economist, Sage Publications, vol. 64(1), pages 102-122, March.
    8. Carl T. Kitchens, 2015. "Are Winners Promoted Too Often? Evidence From The Nfl Draft 1999–2012," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 53(2), pages 1317-1330, April.
    9. Teixeira, Aurora A.C. & Tavares-Lehmann, Ana Teresa, 2014. "Human capital intensity in technology-based firms located in Portugal: Does foreign ownership matter?," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(4), pages 737-748.
    10. Oyer, Paul & Schaefer, Scott, 2011. "Personnel Economics: Hiring and Incentives," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 20, pages 1769-1823, Elsevier.
    11. Camelia M. Kuhnen & Paul Oyer, 2016. "Exploration for Human Capital: Evidence from the MBA Labor Market," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 34(S2), pages 255-286.
    12. W. David Allen, 2015. "The Demand for Younger and Older Workers," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 16(2), pages 127-158, February.
    13. Jill S. Harris, 2018. "State of Play: How Do College Football Programs Compete for Student Athletes?," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 52(2), pages 269-281, March.
    14. Ian Gregory-Smith & Alex Bryson & Rafael Gomez, 2023. "Discrimination in a Rank Order Contest: Evidence from the NFL Draft," Journal of Economics, Race, and Policy, Springer, vol. 6(3), pages 215-231, September.
    15. Wen-Jhan Jane, 2021. "The impact of cultural distance on salary: the case of Samurai Japan," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 11(1), pages 85-123, March.
    16. Tony Caporale & Trevor Collier, 2015. "Are We Getting Better or Are They Getting Worse? Draft Position, Strength of Schedule, and Competitive Balance in the National Football League," Journal of Labor Research, Springer, vol. 36(3), pages 291-300, September.
    17. Akira Motomura, 2016. "MoneyRoundball? The Drafting of International Players by National Basketball Association Teams," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 17(2), pages 175-206, February.
    18. Helmut Dietl & Markus Lang & Johannes Orlowski & Philipp Wegelin, 2023. "The Effect of the Initial Distribution of Labor-Related Property Rights on the Allocative Efficiency of Labor Markets," Working Papers 398, University of Zurich, Department of Business Administration (IBW).
    19. Dennis Coates & Babatunde Oguntimein, 2010. "The Length and Success of NBA Careers: Does College Production Predict Professional Outcomes?," International Journal of Sport Finance, Fitness Information Technology, vol. 5(1), pages 4-26, February.
    20. Michael A. Roach, 2018. "Testing Labor Market Efficiency Across Position Groups in the NFL," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 19(8), pages 1093-1121, December.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:jospec:v:25:y:2024:i:3:p:346-368. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.