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Does Success Breed Success? a Quasi-Experiment on Strategic Momentum in Dynamic Contests

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  • Romain Gauriot
  • Lionel Page

Abstract

We study how agents adapt their behaviour to variations of incentives in dynamic contests. We investigate a real dynamic contest with large stakes: professional tennis matches. Situations in which balls bounce very close to the court’s lines are used as the setting of a quasi-experiment providing random variations in winning probability. We find evidence of a momentum effect for men whereby winning a point has a positive causal impact on the probability to win the next one. This behaviour is compatible with a reaction to the asymmetry of incentives between leaders and followers. We do not find momentum for women.

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  • Romain Gauriot & Lionel Page, 2019. "Does Success Breed Success? a Quasi-Experiment on Strategic Momentum in Dynamic Contests," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 129(624), pages 3107-3136.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:econjl:v:129:y:2019:i:624:p:3107-3136.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/ej/uez040
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