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Long-term investment, the cost of capital and the dividend and buyback puzzle

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  • Adrian Blundell-Wignall
  • Caroline Roulet

Abstract

The paper argues that interest rates are at extremely low levels to support banks, and the search for yield has pushed the liquidity driven speculative bubble from real estate, derivatives and structured products markets into the corporate debt market. Equities have rallied strongly too. This asset cycle is certainly helping banks reduce hidden losses on illiquid securities and could also help reduce the cost of equity. But for this to occur at current bond yields would require an unrealistic bubble in equities. Markets are assuming that this transition from low to higher rates (more in line with nominal GDP) can be handled smoothly by policy makers, when in fact this may not be so. Extreme volatility would risk new financial fragility problems. The paper presents a panel model using more than 4 000 global companies and shows that the Capex decision in general depend on the cost of equity, the accelerator and uncertainty, whereas buybacks are driven mainly by the gap between the cost of equity and debt. Right now the incentive structure implied by very low interest rates, which may be sustained for a long time, together with tax incentives, works directly against longterm investment. Debt finance is cheap, while the cost of equity capital needed for risky long-term investment is still high. This combination provides a direct incentive for borrowing to carry out buybacks (de-equitisation). Noting that weak investment reduces potential GDP, the paper makes some policy suggestions. JEL Classification: G15, G32, G28, E52. Keywords: Long-term investment, interest rates, de-equitisation, cost of capital, dividend and buybacks, monetary policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Adrian Blundell-Wignall & Caroline Roulet, 2013. "Long-term investment, the cost of capital and the dividend and buyback puzzle," OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends, OECD Publishing, vol. 2013(1), pages 39-52.
  • Handle: RePEc:oec:dafkad:5k41z8t05l8s
    DOI: 10.1787/fmt-2013-5k41z8t05l8s
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Lior Cohen & Marta Gómez-Puig & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, 2019. "Has the ECB’s monetary policy prompted companies to invest, or pay dividends?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(45), pages 4920-4938, September.
    2. Balázs Égert, 2021. "Investment in OECD Countries: a Primer," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 63(2), pages 200-223, June.
    3. Adrian Blundell-Wignall, 2020. "QE versus the Real Problems in the World Economy," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(1), pages 1-11, January.
    4. Luigi Bonatti, 2016. "Anemic economic growth in advanced economies: structural factors and the impotence of expansionary macroeconomic policies," DEM Working Papers 2016/11, Department of Economics and Management.
    5. Zoltán Schepp & József Ulbert & Ákos Tóth-Pajor, 2020. "The Effect of Investor Short-Termism on the Capital Demand of European Listed Firms," Financial and Economic Review, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary), vol. 19(2), pages 88-106.
    6. Simmons-Süer, Banu, 2018. "“How relevant is capital structure for aggregate investment? a regime-switching approach”," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 109-117.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    long-term investment; interest rates; de-equitisation; cost of capital; dividend and buybacks; monetary policy.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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