IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/nat/natcli/v8y2018i7d10.1038_s41558-018-0197-7.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Climate–carbon cycle uncertainties and the Paris Agreement

Author

Listed:
  • P. B. Holden

    (The Open University)

  • N. R. Edwards

    (The Open University
    University of Cambridge)

  • A. Ridgwell

    (University of California)

  • R. D. Wilkinson

    (University of Sheffield)

  • K. Fraedrich

    (KlimaCampus)

  • F. Lunkeit

    (University of Hamburg)

  • H. Pollitt

    (University of Cambridge
    Cambridge Econometrics Ltd)

  • J.-F. Mercure

    (University of Cambridge
    Cambridge Econometrics Ltd
    Radboud University)

  • P. Salas

    (University of Cambridge)

  • A. Lam

    (University of Cambridge
    University of Macao)

  • F. Knobloch

    (University of Cambridge
    Radboud University)

  • U. Chewpreecha

    (Cambridge Econometrics Ltd)

  • J. E. Viñuales

    (University of Cambridge)

Abstract

The Paris Agreement1 aims to address the gap between existing climate policies and policies consistent with “holding the increase in global average temperature to well below 2 C”. The feasibility of meeting the target has been questioned both in terms of the possible requirement for negative emissions2 and ongoing debate on the sensitivity of the climate–carbon-cycle system3. Using a sequence of ensembles of a fully dynamic three-dimensional climate–carbon-cycle model, forced by emissions from an integrated assessment model of regional-level climate policy, economy, and technological transformation, we show that a reasonable interpretation of the Paris Agreement is still technically achievable. Specifically, limiting peak (decadal) warming to less than 1.7 °C, or end-of-century warming to less than 1.54 °C, occurs in 50% of our simulations in a policy scenario without net negative emissions or excessive stringency in any policy domain. We evaluate two mitigation scenarios, with 200 gigatonnes of carbon and 307 gigatonnes of carbon post-2017 emissions respectively, quantifying the spatio-temporal variability of warming, precipitation, ocean acidification and marine productivity. Under rapid decarbonization decadal variability dominates the mean response in critical regions, with significant implications for decision-making, demanding impact methodologies that address non-linear spatio-temporal responses. Ignoring carbon-cycle feedback uncertainties (which can explain 47% of peak warming uncertainty) becomes unreasonable under strong mitigation conditions.

Suggested Citation

  • P. B. Holden & N. R. Edwards & A. Ridgwell & R. D. Wilkinson & K. Fraedrich & F. Lunkeit & H. Pollitt & J.-F. Mercure & P. Salas & A. Lam & F. Knobloch & U. Chewpreecha & J. E. Viñuales, 2018. "Climate–carbon cycle uncertainties and the Paris Agreement," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 8(7), pages 609-613, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:8:y:2018:i:7:d:10.1038_s41558-018-0197-7
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-018-0197-7
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-018-0197-7
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1038/s41558-018-0197-7?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Gregor Semieniuk & Emanuele Campiglio & Jean‐Francois Mercure & Ulrich Volz & Neil R. Edwards, 2021. "Low‐carbon transition risks for finance," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 12(1), January.
    2. J.-F. Mercure & P. Salas & P. Vercoulen & G. Semieniuk & A. Lam & H. Pollitt & P. B. Holden & N. Vakilifard & U. Chewpreecha & N. R. Edwards & J. E. Vinuales, 2021. "Reframing incentives for climate policy action," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 6(12), pages 1133-1143, December.
    3. Derbyshire, James & Morgan, Jamie, 2022. "Is seeking certainty in climate sensitivity measures counterproductive in the context of climate emergency? The case for scenario planning," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:8:y:2018:i:7:d:10.1038_s41558-018-0197-7. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.nature.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.