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Analysis of Unemployment and Employment After a Strict COVID-19 Confinement Policy in Cali

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  • Jhon James Mora

    (Universidad Icesi)

Abstract

This article discusses the effects of the quarantine policies established due to the new Coronavirus (COVID-19) on the employment and unemployment rates of the city of Cali in 2020. As the policy of confinement affected the mobility of workers, the main effect fell on the generation of employment in the city. Consequently, inferring the effects on employment became one of the main challenges in the city. In order to analyze the impacts of COVID-19 on employment, a mixed methodology is proposed here. On the one hand, it involves information from a committee of labor market experts and, on the other hand, the use of time series. The results of this methodology show that the forecasts made were very close to what was observed in April, May and June. Finally, this article discusses the effect of a shock on Cali's labor market, finding that it would last about 18 months on unemployment and almost a year on employment

Suggested Citation

  • Jhon James Mora, 2021. "Analysis of Unemployment and Employment After a Strict COVID-19 Confinement Policy in Cali," Lecturas de Economía, Universidad de Antioquia, Departamento de Economía, issue 94, pages 165-193, Enero-Jun.
    • Handle: RePEc:lde:journl:y:2021:i:94:p:165-193
    DOI: 10.17533/udea.le.n94a342002
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    File URL: https://revistas.udea.edu.co/index.php/lecturasdeeconomia/article/view/342002
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kopczuk, Wojciech & Alstadsæter, Annette & Bratsberg, Bernt & Eielsen, Gaute & Markussen, Simen & Raaum, Oddbjørn & Røed, Knut, 2020. "The first weeks of the coronavirus crisis: Who got hit, when and why? Evidence from Norway," CEPR Discussion Papers 14825, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Corina Boar & Simon Mongey, 2020. "Dynamic Trade-offs and Labor Supply Under the CARES Act," NBER Working Papers 27727, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Leonardo Fabio Morales & Leonardo Bonilla‐Mejía & Jose Pulido & Luz A. Flórez & Didier Hermida & Karen L. Pulido‐Mahecha & Francisco Lasso‐Valderrama, 2022. "Effects of the COVID‐19 pandemic on the Colombian labour market: Disentangling the effect of sector‐specific mobility restrictions," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 55(S1), pages 308-357, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    employment; unemployment; informality; experts committee; time series; seasonal unit root; Kaplan-Meier;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J23 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Demand
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis; Optimal Timing Strategies

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