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Short- and medium-term fiscal positions in a high-inflation environment: the case of Croatia

Author

Listed:
  • Frane Banic

    (Croatian National Bank, Zagreb, Croatia)

  • Dominik Ivan Pripuzic

    (Croatian National Bank, Zagreb, Croatia)

  • Pave Rebic

    (Croatian National Bank, Zagreb, Croatia)

Abstract

This paper analyses the short- and medium-term effects of high inflation on fiscal developments in Croatia. The main analytical novelty is to add inflation shocks to the fiscal reaction function, an approach that was not considered in macro-fiscal research during the long period of moderate inflation. Our results suggest that inflation has a favourable effect on the primary balance in the short term, which can be explained by the positive effect of inflation on nominal tax revenues and an initial lagged adjustment of public expenditure to inflation. In the medium term, however, inflation is likely to have a negative effect on the primary balance by raising government expenditure more than tax revenues.

Suggested Citation

  • Frane Banic & Dominik Ivan Pripuzic & Pave Rebic, 2023. "Short- and medium-term fiscal positions in a high-inflation environment: the case of Croatia," Public Sector Economics, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 47(4), pages 461-475.
    • Handle: RePEc:ipf:psejou:v:47:y:2023:i:4:p:461-475
    DOI: 10.3326/pse.47.4.4
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Henning Bohn, 1998. "The Behavior of U. S. Public Debt and Deficits," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 113(3), pages 949-963.
    2. Vladimir Arcabic & Frane Banic, 2021. "Characteristics of fiscal policy in Croatia: does it depend on the phase of the business cycle?," Public Sector Economics, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 45(4), pages 433-457.
    3. Roberto Golinelli & Sandro Momigliano, 2008. "The cyclical response of fiscal policies in the euro area. Why do results of empirical research differ so strongly?," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 654, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    4. Katia Berti & Eugeniu Colesnic & Cyril Desponts & Stephanie Pamies & Etienne Sail, 2016. "Fiscal Reaction Functions for European Union Countries," European Economy - Discussion Papers 028, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    fiscal policy; inflation; tax revenue; public expenditure; debt dynamics; business cycle; breakpoint regression;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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