IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/soceps/v86y2023ics0038012122002737.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Modeling social, economic, and health perspectives for optimal pandemic policy decision-making

Author

Listed:
  • Soltanisehat, Leili
  • González, Andrés D.
  • Barker, Kash

Abstract

While different control strategies in the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic have helped decrease the number of infections, these strategies have had an adverse economic impact on businesses. Therefore, optimal timing and scale of closure and reopening strategies are required to prevent both different waves of the pandemic and the negative economic impact of control strategies. This paper proposes a novel multi-objective mixed-integer linear programming (MOMILP) formulation, which results in the optimal timing of closure and reopening of states and industries in each state to mitigate the economic and epidemiological impact of a pandemic. The three objectives being pursued include: (i) the epidemiological impact, (ii) the economic impact on the local businesses, and (iii) the economic impact on the trades between industries. The proposed model is implemented on a dataset that includes 11 states, the District of Columbia, and 19 industries in the US. The solved by augmented ε-constraint approach is used to solve the multi-objective model, and a final strategy is selected from the set of Pareto-optimal solutions based on the least cubic distance of the solution from the optimal value of each objective. The Pareto-optimal solutions suggest that for any control decision (state and industry closure or reopening), the economic impact and the epidemiological impact change in the opposite direction, and it is more effective to close most states while keeping the majority of industries open during the planning horizon.

Suggested Citation

  • Soltanisehat, Leili & González, Andrés D. & Barker, Kash, 2023. "Modeling social, economic, and health perspectives for optimal pandemic policy decision-making," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:soceps:v:86:y:2023:i:c:s0038012122002737
    DOI: 10.1016/j.seps.2022.101472
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0038012122002737
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.seps.2022.101472?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dimitris Bertsimas & Leonard Boussioux & Ryan Cory-Wright & Arthur Delarue & Vassilis Digalakis & Alexandre Jacquillat & Driss Lahlou Kitane & Galit Lukin & Michael Li & Luca Mingardi & Omid Nohadani , 2021. "From predictions to prescriptions: A data-driven response to COVID-19," Health Care Management Science, Springer, vol. 24(2), pages 253-272, June.
    2. Maliszewska,Maryla & Mattoo,Aaditya & Van Der Mensbrugghe,Dominique, 2020. "The Potential Impact of COVID-19 on GDP and Trade : A Preliminary Assessment," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9211, The World Bank.
    3. Demirguc-Kunt,Asli & Lokshin,Michael M. & Torre,Ivan, 2020. "The Sooner, the Better : The Early Economic Impact of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions during the COVID-19 Pandemic," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9257, The World Bank.
    4. Abdullah Alsharef & Siddharth Banerjee & S M Jamil Uddin & Alex Albert & Edward Jaselskis, 2021. "Early Impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the United States Construction Industry," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(4), pages 1-20, February.
    5. Markus Hartikainen & Kaisa Miettinen & Margaret Wiecek, 2012. "PAINT: Pareto front interpolation for nonlinear multiobjective optimization," Computational Optimization and Applications, Springer, vol. 52(3), pages 845-867, July.
    6. Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús & Jones, Charles I., 2022. "Estimating and simulating a SIRD Model of COVID-19 for many countries, states, and cities," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    7. Mavrotas, George & Florios, Kostas, 2013. "An improved version of the augmented epsilon-constraint method (AUGMECON2) for finding the exact Pareto set in Multi-Objective Integer Programming problems," MPRA Paper 105034, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Andy Sumner & Christopher Hoy & Eduardo Ortiz-Juarez, 2020. "Estimates of the impact of COVID-19 on global poverty," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2020-43, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    9. Jaime Bonet‐Morón & Diana Ricciulli‐Marín & Gerson Javier Pérez‐Valbuena & Luis Armando Galvis‐Aponte & Eduardo A. Haddad & Inácio F. Araújo & Fernando S. Perobelli, 2020. "Regional economic impact of COVID‐19 in Colombia: An input–output approach," Regional Science Policy & Practice, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(6), pages 1123-1150, December.
    10. Aspri, Andrea & Beretta, Elena & Gandolfi, Alberto & Wasmer, Etienne, 2021. "Mortality containment vs. Economics Opening: Optimal policies in a SEIARD model," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    11. Amory Martin & Maryia Markhvida & Stéphane Hallegatte & Brian Walsh, 2020. "Socio-Economic Impacts of COVID-19 on Household Consumption and Poverty," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 4(3), pages 453-479, October.
    12. Abel Brodeur & David Gray & Anik Islam & Suraiya Bhuiyan, 2021. "A literature review of the economics of COVID‐19," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(4), pages 1007-1044, September.
    13. Gros, Claudius & Gros, Daniel, 2022. "The economics of stop-and-go epidemic control," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    14. Barua, Suborna, 2020. "Understanding Coronanomics: The economic implications of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic," MPRA Paper 99693, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Hiroyasu Inoue & Yasuyuki Todo, 2020. "The propagation of the economic impact through supply chains: The case of a mega-city lockdown against the spread of COVID-19," Papers 2003.14002, arXiv.org.
    16. Zhu, Peican & Wang, Xinyu & Li, Shudong & Guo, Yangming & Wang, Zhen, 2019. "Investigation of epidemic spreading process on multiplex networks by incorporating fatal properties," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 359(C), pages 512-524.
    17. Ocampo, Lanndon & Yamagishi, Kafferine, 2020. "Modeling the lockdown relaxation protocols of the Philippine government in response to the COVID-19 pandemic: An intuitionistic fuzzy DEMATEL analysis," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    18. Hiroyasu Inoue & Yasuyuki Todo, 2020. "The propagation of economic impacts through supply chains: The case of a mega-city lockdown to prevent the spread of COVID-19," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(9), pages 1-10, September.
    19. Andrew Atkeson & Michael C. Droste & Michael Mina & James H. Stock, 2020. "Economic Benefits of COVID-19 Screening Tests," NBER Working Papers 28031, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. S. Mahendra Dev & Rajeswari Sengupta, 2020. "Covid-19: Impact on the Indian economy," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2020-013, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
    21. Ehlert, Andree, 2021. "The socio-economic determinants of COVID-19: A spatial analysis of German county level data," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    22. Naimoli, Antonio, 2022. "Modelling the persistence of Covid-19 positivity rate in Italy," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 82(PA).
    23. Janiak, Alexandre & Machado, Caio & Turén, Javier, 2021. "Covid-19 contagion, economic activity and business reopening protocols," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 182(C), pages 264-284.
    24. Andersen, Torben M. & Schröder, Philipp J. H. & Svarer, Michael, 2020. "Designing Reopening Strategies in the Aftermath of COVID-19 Lockdowns: Some Principles with an Application to Denmark," IZA Policy Papers 158, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    25. Rezaei Soufi, Hojat & Esfahanipour, Akbar & Akbarpour Shirazi, Mohsen, 2022. "A quantitative approach for analysis of macroeconomic resilience due to socio-economic shocks," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    26. Asep Suryahadi & Ridho Al Izzati & Daniel Suryadarma, 2020. "Estimating the Impact of Covid-19 on Poverty in Indonesia," Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(2), pages 175-192, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sadananda Prusty & Anubha & Saurabh Gupta, 2021. "On the Road to Recovery: The Role of Post-Lockdown Stimulus Package," FIIB Business Review, , vol. 11(2), pages 206-224, June.
    2. Nano Prawoto & Eko Priyo Purnomo & Abitassha Az Zahra, 2020. "The Impacts of Covid-19 Pandemic on Socio-Economic Mobility in Indonesia," International Journal of Economics & Business Administration (IJEBA), International Journal of Economics & Business Administration (IJEBA), vol. 0(3), pages 57-71.
    3. Antoine Mandel & Vipin Veetil, 2020. "The Economic Cost of COVID Lockdowns: An Out-of-Equilibrium Analysis," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 4(3), pages 431-451, October.
    4. Simionescu, Mihaela & Raišienė, Agota Giedrė, 2021. "A bridge between sentiment indicators: What does Google Trends tell us about COVID-19 pandemic and employment expectations in the EU new member states?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    5. Brum, Matias & De Rosa, Mauricio, 2021. "Too little but not too late: nowcasting poverty and cash transfers’ incidence during COVID-19’s crisis," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    6. Matías Brum & Mauricio de Rosa, 2020. "Too little but not too late. Nowcasting poverty and cash transfers' incidence in Uruguay during COVID-19's crisis," Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) 20-09, Instituto de Economía - IECON.
    7. Keiichi Morimoto & Shiba Suzuki, 2022. "Ambiguity in a pandemic recession, asset prices, and lockdown policy," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 24(5), pages 1039-1070, October.
    8. Prol, Javier López & O, Sungmin, 2020. "Impact of COVID-19 Measures on Short-Term Electricity Consumption in the Most Affected EU Countries and USA States," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 23(10).
    9. Decerf, Benoit & Ferreira, Francisco H.G. & Mahler, Daniel G. & Sterck, Olivier, 2021. "Lives and livelihoods: Estimates of the global mortality and poverty effects of the Covid-19 pandemic," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    10. Mohammadreza Akbari & John L. Hopkins, 2022. "Digital technologies as enablers of supply chain sustainability in an emerging economy," Operations Management Research, Springer, vol. 15(3), pages 689-710, December.
    11. Kahn, Charles M. & Wagner, Wolf, 2021. "Liquidity provision during a pandemic," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    12. Mellacher, Patrick, 2020. "COVID-Town: An Integrated Economic-Epidemiological Agent-Based Model," MPRA Paper 103661, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Viral Acharya & Zhengyang Jiang & Robert J. Richmond & Ernst-Ludwig von Thadden, 2020. "Divided We Fall: International Health and Trade Coordination During a Pandemic," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2020_248, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.
    14. Polina Popova & Maria Semenova & Vladimir Sokolov, 2023. "Covid-19 And Retail Depositor Strategies In Russian Regions: Whether To Withdraw And Why?," HSE Working papers WP BRP 92/FE/2023, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    15. Trinh Q. Long, 2021. "Individual Subjective Well-Being during the COVID-19 Pandemic," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(14), pages 1-18, July.
    16. Xinxiong Wu & Chen Chen Yong & Su Teng Lee, 2022. "Addressing the COVID-19 Shock: The Potential Job Creation in China by the RCEP," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(23), pages 1-15, November.
    17. INOUE Tomoo & OKIMOTO Tatsuyoshi, 2022. "Exploring the Dynamic Relationship between Mobility and the Spread of COVID-19, and the Role of Vaccines," Discussion papers 22011, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    18. Anuradha Patnaik, 2022. "Measuring Demand and Supply Shocks From COVID-19: An Industry-Level Analysis for India," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 16(1), pages 76-105, February.
    19. Di Nino, Virginia & Veltri, Bruno, 2020. "The viral effects of foreign trade and supply networks in the euro area," Economic Bulletin Articles, European Central Bank, vol. 6.
    20. Quang Dang Nguyen & Mikhail Prokopenko, 2022. "A general framework for optimising cost-effectiveness of pandemic response under partial intervention measures," Papers 2205.08996, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2022.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:soceps:v:86:y:2023:i:c:s0038012122002737. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/seps .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.