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Exchange rate pass-through & management of inflation expectations in a small open inflation targeting economy

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  • Nasir, Muhammad Ali
  • Duc Huynh, Toan Luu
  • Vo, Xuan Vinh

Abstract

In the context of inflation targeting, this study analyses the exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) to inflation expectations in a small open inflation targeting economy. We also augment the inflation expectations function with GDP, inflation, unemployment, fiscal stance, oil prices and money supply. Drawing on the data from May 1999 to Dec 2018 on the Czech Republic, which was the first developing country to adopt inflation targeting, our key results suggest that ERPT has significant implications for inflation expectations. Inflation expectations are also strongly influenced by actual inflation and past inflation expectations suggesting evidence of adaptive expectations. Economic growth, labour market outlook, money supply, oil price shocks and fiscal stance also showed a considerable impact on inflation expectations, though results varied in the short and long run. Our study contributes to the debate on ERPT and inflation targeting by reflecting on the inflation expectations channel.

Suggested Citation

  • Nasir, Muhammad Ali & Duc Huynh, Toan Luu & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2020. "Exchange rate pass-through & management of inflation expectations in a small open inflation targeting economy," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 178-188.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reveco:v:69:y:2020:i:c:p:178-188
    DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2020.04.010
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange rate pass-through; Inflation targeting; Oil shocks; Monetary policy; Money supply; Inflation; Inflation expectations; Nonlinear ARDL; NKPC;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations

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