IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/renene/v113y2017icp1559-1568.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Do Kenya’s climate change mitigation ambitions necessitate large-scale renewable energy deployment and dedicated low-carbon energy policy?

Author

Listed:
  • Dalla Longa, Francesco
  • van der Zwaan, Bob

Abstract

In this paper Kenya’s climate change mitigation ambitions are analysed from an energy system perspective, with a focus on the role of renewable and other low-carbon energy technologies. At COP-21 in 2015 in Paris, Kenya has committed to a ‘nationally determined contribution’ of reducing domestic greenhouse gas emissions by 30% in 2030 in comparison to a business-as-usual projection. An efficient exploitation of the country’s renewable energy resources is key to achieving this target. We use the TIAM-ECN model to characterize plausible development pathways for the Kenyan energy mix until 2050 under different climate change mitigation scenarios. We conclude that the power sector can expand with mostly renewable energy options even in the absence of stringent greenhouse gas abatement targets. On the contrary, on the demand side a substantial deployment of low-carbon technologies is triggered only when ambitious emission reduction objectives are in place. The introduction of these technologies entails additional energy system costs, ranging in 2050 from 0.5% to 2% of the country’s GDP. Our analysis supports the feasibility of Kenyan climate management goals, provided that adequate investments in renewable and other low-carbon energy technologies are timely made available.

Suggested Citation

  • Dalla Longa, Francesco & van der Zwaan, Bob, 2017. "Do Kenya’s climate change mitigation ambitions necessitate large-scale renewable energy deployment and dedicated low-carbon energy policy?," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 1559-1568.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:113:y:2017:i:c:p:1559-1568
    DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2017.06.026
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S096014811730527X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.renene.2017.06.026?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. van der Zwaan, Bob & Kober, Tom & Calderon, Silvia & Clarke, Leon & Daenzer, Katie & Kitous, Alban & Labriet, Maryse & Lucena, André F.P. & Octaviano, Claudia & Di Sbroiavacca, Nicolas, 2016. "Energy technology roll-out for climate change mitigation: A multi-model study for Latin America," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 526-542.
    2. Richard Loulou & Maryse Labriet, 2008. "ETSAP-TIAM: the TIMES integrated assessment model Part I: Model structure," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 7-40, February.
    3. Rabah, Kefa V.O., 2005. "Integrated solar energy systems for rural electrification in Kenya," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 23-42.
    4. Richard Loulou, 2008. "ETSAP-TIAM: the TIMES integrated assessment model. part II: mathematical formulation," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 41-66, February.
    5. Sesan, Temilade, 2012. "Navigating the limitations of energy poverty: Lessons from the promotion of improved cooking technologies in Kenya," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 202-210.
    6. Sanoh, Aly & Kocaman, Ayse Selin & Kocal, Selcuk & Sherpa, Shaky & Modi, Vijay, 2014. "The economics of clean energy resource development and grid interconnection in Africa," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 598-609.
    7. Yadoo, Annabel & Cruickshank, Heather, 2012. "The role for low carbon electrification technologies in poverty reduction and climate change strategies: A focus on renewable energy mini-grids with case studies in Nepal, Peru and Kenya," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 591-602.
    8. United Nations UN, 2015. "Transforming our World: the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development," Working Papers id:7559, eSocialSciences.
    9. Ondraczek, Janosch & Komendantova, Nadejda & Patt, Anthony, 2015. "WACC the dog: The effect of financing costs on the levelized cost of solar PV power," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 888-898.
    10. Mariita, Nicholas O., 2002. "The impact of large-scale renewable energy development on the poor: environmental and socio-economic impact of a geothermal power plant on a poor rural community in Kenya," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 30(11-12), pages 1119-1128, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Panagiotis Fragkos & Francesco Dalla Longa & Eleftheria Zisarou & Bob van der Zwaan & Anastasis Giannousakis & Amir Fattahi, 2023. "Exploring Model-Based Decarbonization and Energy Efficiency Scenarios with PROMETHEUS and TIAM-ECN," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(18), pages 1-22, September.
    2. Liobikienė, Genovaitė & Butkus, Mindaugas, 2019. "Scale, composition, and technique effects through which the economic growth, foreign direct investment, urbanization, and trade affect greenhouse gas emissions," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 1310-1322.
    3. Kang, Jia-Ning & Wei, Yi-Ming & Liu, Lan-Cui & Han, Rong & Yu, Bi-Ying & Wang, Jin-Wei, 2020. "Energy systems for climate change mitigation: A systematic review," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 263(C).
    4. Gideon Kipsiele & Paul Gesimba & David Gichuhi, 2020. "The effect of environmental change on sustainable energy in Olkaria geothermal and Kenya power station, Nakuru County, Kenya," International Journal of Research in Business and Social Science (2147-4478), Center for the Strategic Studies in Business and Finance, vol. 9(5), pages 367-373, September.
    5. Ricardo Luís Carvalho & Pooja Yadav & Natxo García-López & Robert Lindgren & Gert Nyberg & Rocio Diaz-Chavez & Venkata Krishna Kumar Upadhyayula & Christoffer Boman & Dimitris Athanassiadis, 2020. "Environmental Sustainability of Bioenergy Strategies in Western Kenya to Address Household Air Pollution," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-17, February.
    6. Carvalho, Ricardo L. & Lindgren, Robert & García-López, Natxo & Nyambane, Anne & Nyberg, Gert & Diaz-Chavez, Rocio & Boman, Christoffer, 2019. "Household air pollution mitigation with integrated biomass/cookstove strategies in Western Kenya," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 168-186.
    7. Oluoch, Sydney & Lal, Pankaj & Susaeta, Andres & Wolde, Bernabas, 2021. "Public preferences for renewable energy options: A choice experiment in Kenya," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    8. Wambui, Valentine & Njoka, Francis & Muguthu, Joseph & Ndwali, Patrick, 2022. "Scenario analysis of electricity pathways in Kenya using Low Emissions Analysis Platform and the Next Energy Modeling system for optimization," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    9. Mihaela Sterpu & Georgeta Soava & Anca Mehedintu, 2018. "Impact of Economic Growth and Energy Consumption on Greenhouse Gas Emissions: Testing Environmental Curves Hypotheses on EU Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(9), pages 1-14, September.
    10. Dalla Longa, Francesco & van der Zwaan, Bob, 2021. "Heart of light: an assessment of enhanced electricity access in Africa," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    11. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Wang, Chih-Wei & Hong, Pei-Hsuan & Lin, Weizheng, 2024. "Environmental policy stringency and bank risks: Does green economy matter?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    12. Li, Wei & Lu, Can & Zhang, Yan-Wu, 2019. "Prospective exploration of future renewable portfolio standard schemes in China via a multi-sector CGE model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 45-56.
    13. Sweerts, Bart & Longa, Francesco Dalla & van der Zwaan, Bob, 2019. "Financial de-risking to unlock Africa's renewable energy potential," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 75-82.
    14. Lai, Chun Sing & Locatelli, Giorgio & Pimm, Andrew & Tao, Yingshan & Li, Xuecong & Lai, Loi Lei, 2019. "A financial model for lithium-ion storage in a photovoltaic and biogas energy system," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 251(C), pages 1-1.
    15. Macharia, Kenneth Kigundu & Gathiaka, John Kamau & Ngui, Dianah, 2022. "Energy efficiency in the Kenyan manufacturing sector," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    16. Mahumane, Gilberto & Mulder, Peter, 2019. "Expanding versus greening? Long-term energy and emission transitions in Mozambique," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 145-156.
    17. Zhou, Yuanxiang & Lu, Bu & Jia, Wei & Huang, Chunjie & Ma, Yingqi, 2023. "The conflict between natural resource use and welfare supply — Natural resources is a bless or a curse?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    18. Handayani, Kamia & Filatova, Tatiana & Krozer, Yoram & Anugrah, Pinto, 2020. "Seeking for a climate change mitigation and adaptation nexus: Analysis of a long-term power system expansion," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 262(C).
    19. Handayani, Kamia & Krozer, Yoram & Filatova, Tatiana, 2017. "Trade-offs between electrification and climate change mitigation: An analysis of the Java-Bali power system in Indonesia," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 208(C), pages 1020-1037.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dalla Longa, Francesco & van der Zwaan, Bob, 2021. "Heart of light: an assessment of enhanced electricity access in Africa," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    2. van der Zwaan, Bob & Kober, Tom & Longa, Francesco Dalla & van der Laan, Anouk & Jan Kramer, Gert, 2018. "An integrated assessment of pathways for low-carbon development in Africa," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 387-395.
    3. Kober, Tom & Falzon, James & van der Zwaan, Bob & Calvin, Katherine & Kanudia, Amit & Kitous, Alban & Labriet, Maryse, 2016. "A multi-model study of energy supply investments in Latin America under climate control policy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 543-551.
    4. Ettore Bompard & Daniele Grosso & Tao Huang & Francesco Profumo & Xianzhang Lei & Duo Li, 2018. "World Decarbonization through Global Electricity Interconnections," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(7), pages 1-29, July.
    5. Dai, Hancheng & Mischke, Peggy & Xie, Xuxuan & Xie, Yang & Masui, Toshihiko, 2016. "Closing the gap? Top-down versus bottom-up projections of China’s regional energy use and CO2 emissions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 1355-1373.
    6. Murphy, Frederic & Pierru, Axel & Smeers, Yves, 2019. "Measuring the effects of price controls using mixed complementarity models," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 275(2), pages 666-676.
    7. Bahn, Olivier & Marcy, Mathilde & Vaillancourt, Kathleen & Waaub, Jean-Philippe, 2013. "Electrification of the Canadian road transportation sector: A 2050 outlook with TIMES-Canada," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 593-606.
    8. Kallio, A.M.I. & Salminen, O. & Sievänen, R., 2016. "Forests in the Finnish low carbon scenarios," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 45-62.
    9. Riikka Siljander & Tommi Ekholm, 2018. "Integrated scenario modelling of energy, greenhouse gas emissions and forestry," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 23(5), pages 783-802, June.
    10. Renaud Coulomb & Oskar Lecuyer & Adrien Vogt-Schilb, 2019. "Optimal Transition from Coal to Gas and Renewable Power Under Capacity Constraints and Adjustment Costs," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 73(2), pages 557-590, June.
    11. Bouckaert, Stéphanie & Assoumou, Edi & Selosse, Sandrine & Maïzi, Nadia, 2014. "A prospective analysis of waste heat management at power plants and water conservation issues using a global TIMES model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 80-91.
    12. Mauleón, Ignacio, 2019. "Optimizing individual renewable energies roadmaps: Criteria, methods, and end targets," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 253(C), pages 1-1.
    13. Pina, André & Silva, Carlos & Ferrão, Paulo, 2011. "Modeling hourly electricity dynamics for policy making in long-term scenarios," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(9), pages 4692-4702, September.
    14. Halkos, George, 2014. "The Economics of Climate Change Policy: Critical review and future policy directions," MPRA Paper 56841, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Antonio Rodríguez-Martínez & Yolanda Lechón & Helena Cabal & David Castrejón & Marco Polo Flores & R.J. Romero, 2018. "Consequences of the National Energy Strategy in the Mexican Energy System: Analyzing Strategic Indicators with an Optimization Energy Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-19, October.
    16. Matar, Walid & Murphy, Frederic & Pierru, Axel & Rioux, Bertrand, 2015. "Lowering Saudi Arabia's fuel consumption and energy system costs without increasing end consumer prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 558-569.
    17. Levasseur, Annie & Bahn, Olivier & Beloin-Saint-Pierre, Didier & Marinova, Mariya & Vaillancourt, Kathleen, 2017. "Assessing butanol from integrated forest biorefinery: A combined techno-economic and life cycle approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 198(C), pages 440-452.
    18. Frederic Murphy & Axel Pierru & Yves Smeers, 2016. "A Tutorial on Building Policy Models as Mixed-Complementarity Problems," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 46(6), pages 465-481, December.
    19. Oskar Lecuyer & Adrien Vogt-Schilb, 2013. "Assessing and ordering investments in polluting fossil-fueled and zero-carbon capital," CIRED Working Papers hal-00850680, HAL.
    20. Guo, Yingjian & Hawkes, Adam, 2019. "The impact of demand uncertainties and China-US natural gas tariff on global gas trade," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 205-217.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:113:y:2017:i:c:p:1559-1568. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/renewable-energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.