IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jomega/v123y2024ics0305048323001391.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A novel online portfolio selection approach based on pattern matching and ESG factors

Author

Listed:
  • Fereydooni, Ali
  • Barak, Sasan
  • Asaad Sajadi, Seyed Mehrzad

Abstract

In modern finance, social investment portfolios have attracted the attention of researchers, investors, and practitioners. Regarding the long-term nature of this investment, the selection of the portfolios for a single period should be reconsidered as an online portfolio selection which focuses on the allocation of portfolios over multiple periods to maximize the expected growth rate of the portfolio. Besides common factors such as return on investment, many investors are willing to invest in assets complying with sustainability requirements. This study develops an online portfolio selection strategy that considers Environmental, Social, and Governance factors in addition to return and risk. Due to the diversity of constructed portfolios, different assets are first clustered based on their mutual information. The clustering model is selected through a comparison between four different clustering models. Then, a novel pattern-matching approach is implemented on the clustered assets that not only considers the amount of profitability of previous windows but also finds the optimal length and number of windows. After predicting the last groups of windows based on the pattern-matching, superior assets in terms of return and Sharpe ratio in each cluster are chosen, and the final portfolios are established regarding two scenarios; (i) a mean-variance strategy, and (ii) a developed mean-variance strategy which considers Environmental, Social, and Governance factors besides return and risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Fereydooni, Ali & Barak, Sasan & Asaad Sajadi, Seyed Mehrzad, 2024. "A novel online portfolio selection approach based on pattern matching and ESG factors," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jomega:v:123:y:2024:i:c:s0305048323001391
    DOI: 10.1016/j.omega.2023.102975
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0305048323001391
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.omega.2023.102975?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sayema Sultana & Norhayah Zulkifli & Dalilawati Zainal, 2018. "Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) and Investment Decision in Bangladesh," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(6), pages 1-19, June.
    2. Fatemi, Ali & Glaum, Martin & Kaiser, Stefanie, 2018. "ESG performance and firm value: The moderating role of disclosure," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 45-64.
    3. Lu, Ya-Nan & Li, Sai-Ping & Zhong, Li-Xin & Jiang, Xiong-Fei & Ren, Fei, 2018. "A clustering-based portfolio strategy incorporating momentum effect and market trend prediction," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 1-15.
    4. Victor DeMiguel & Francisco J. Nogales & Raman Uppal, 2014. "Stock Return Serial Dependence and Out-of-Sample Portfolio Performance," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 27(4), pages 1031-1073.
    5. Gunnar Friede & Timo Busch & Alexander Bassen, 2015. "ESG and financial performance: aggregated evidence from more than 2000 empirical studies," Journal of Sustainable Finance & Investment, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(4), pages 210-233, October.
    6. Staino, Alessandro & Russo, Emilio, 2020. "Nested Conditional Value-at-Risk portfolio selection: A model with temporal dependence driven by market-index volatility," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 280(2), pages 741-753.
    7. Nhi N.Y.Vo & Xue-Zhong He & Shaowu Liu & Guandong Xu, 2019. "Deep Learning for Decision Making and the Optimization of Socially Responsible Investments and Portfolio," Published Paper Series 2019-3, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
    8. Guo, Sini & Gu, Jia-Wen & Fok, Christopher H. & Ching, Wai-Ki, 2023. "Online portfolio selection with state-dependent price estimators and transaction costs," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 311(1), pages 333-353.
    9. Anatoly B. Schmidt, 2022. "Optimal ESG portfolios: an example for the Dow Jones Index," Journal of Sustainable Finance & Investment, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(2), pages 529-535, April.
    10. Ferreira, Miguel A. & Santa-Clara, Pedro, 2011. "Forecasting stock market returns: The sum of the parts is more than the whole," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(3), pages 514-537, June.
    11. Bin Li & Steven C. H. Hoi, 2012. "On-Line Portfolio Selection with Moving Average Reversion," Papers 1206.4626, arXiv.org.
    12. Xingyu Yang & Jin’an He & Hong Lin & Yong Zhang, 2020. "Boosting Exponential Gradient Strategy for Online Portfolio Selection: An Aggregating Experts’ Advice Method," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 55(1), pages 231-251, January.
    13. Chu, Gang & Zhang, Wei & Sun, Guofeng & Zhang, Xiaotao, 2019. "A new online portfolio selection algorithm based on Kalman Filter and anti-correlation," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 536(C).
    14. Chakrabarti, Deepayan, 2021. "Parameter-free robust optimization for the maximum-Sharpe portfolio problem," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 293(1), pages 388-399.
    15. Meir Statman, 2019. "A Second Generation Behavioral Finance," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Behavioral Finance The Coming of Age, chapter 1, pages 3-21, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    16. László Györfi & Gábor Lugosi & Frederic Udina, 2006. "Nonparametric Kernel‐Based Sequential Investment Strategies," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(2), pages 337-357, April.
    17. Leal, Marina & Ponce, Diego & Puerto, Justo, 2020. "Portfolio problems with two levels decision-makers: Optimal portfolio selection with pricing decisions on transaction costs," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 284(2), pages 712-727.
    18. Edoardo Otranto, 2010. "Asset allocation using flexible dynamic correlation models with regime switching," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(3), pages 325-338.
    19. Briec, Walter & Kerstens, Kristiaan, 2009. "Multi-horizon Markowitz portfolio performance appraisals: A general approach," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 50-62, February.
    20. Harry Markowitz, 1952. "Portfolio Selection," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 7(1), pages 77-91, March.
    21. Balter, Anne G. & Mahayni, Antje & Schweizer, Nikolaus, 2021. "Time-consistency of optimal investment under smooth ambiguity," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 293(2), pages 643-657.
    22. Panagiotelis, Anastasios & Athanasopoulos, George & Hyndman, Rob J. & Jiang, Bin & Vahid, Farshid, 2019. "Macroeconomic forecasting for Australia using a large number of predictors," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 616-633.
    23. Guo, Sini & Gu, Jia-Wen & Ching, Wai-Ki, 2021. "Adaptive online portfolio selection with transaction costs," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 295(3), pages 1074-1086.
    24. Justyna Przychodzen & Fernando Gómez-Bezares & Wojciech Przychodzen & Mikel Larreina, 2016. "ESG Issues among Fund Managers—Factors and Motives," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(10), pages 1-19, October.
    25. Brent Meyer & Mehmet Pasaogullari, 2010. "Simple ways to forecast inflation: what works best?," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Dec.
    26. Sasan Barak & Navid Parvini, 2023. "Transfer‐entropy‐based dynamic feature selection for evaluating Bitcoin price drivers," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(12), pages 1695-1726, December.
    27. Moinak Maiti, 2021. "Is ESG the succeeding risk factor?," Journal of Sustainable Finance & Investment, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(3), pages 199-213, July.
    28. Gaivoronski, Alexei A. & Stella, Fabio, 2003. "On-line portfolio selection using stochastic programming," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 1013-1043, April.
    29. Pedersen, Lasse Heje & Fitzgibbons, Shaun & Pomorski, Lukasz, 2021. "Responsible investing: The ESG-efficient frontier," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(2), pages 572-597.
    30. Fereydooni, Ali & Mahootchi, Masoud, 2023. "An algorithmic trading system based on a stacked generalization model and hidden Markov model in the foreign exchange market," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    31. Gatzert, Nadine & Martin, Alexander & Schmidt, Martin & Seith, Benjamin & Vogl, Nikolai, 2021. "Portfolio optimization with irreversible long-term investments in renewable energy under policy risk: A mixed-integer multistage stochastic model and a moving-horizon approach," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 290(2), pages 734-748.
    32. Bilbao-Terol, Amelia & Arenas-Parra, Mar & Cañal-Fernández, Verónica & Antomil-Ibias, José, 2014. "Using TOPSIS for assessing the sustainability of government bond funds," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 1-17.
    33. Ishizaka, Alessio & Lokman, Banu & Tasiou, Menelaos, 2021. "A Stochastic Multi-criteria divisive hierarchical clustering algorithm," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    34. Thomas M. Cover, 1991. "Universal Portfolios," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 1(1), pages 1-29, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Guo, Sini & Gu, Jia-Wen & Ching, Wai-Ki, 2021. "Adaptive online portfolio selection with transaction costs," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 295(3), pages 1074-1086.
    2. Davoodi, Shayan & Fereydooni, Ali & Rastegar, Mohammad Ali, 2024. "Can portfolio construction considering ESG still gain high profits?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(PA).
    3. Ha, Youngmin & Zhang, Hai, 2020. "Algorithmic trading for online portfolio selection under limited market liquidity," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 286(3), pages 1033-1051.
    4. Guo, Sini & Gu, Jia-Wen & Fok, Christopher H. & Ching, Wai-Ki, 2023. "Online portfolio selection with state-dependent price estimators and transaction costs," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 311(1), pages 333-353.
    5. Gallucci, Carmen & Santulli, Rosalia & Lagasio, Valentina, 2022. "The conceptualization of environmental, social and governance risks in portfolio studies A systematic literature review," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    6. Bin Li & Steven C. H. Hoi, 2012. "Online Portfolio Selection: A Survey," Papers 1212.2129, arXiv.org, revised May 2013.
    7. Berenike Wiener & Georg von Schnurbein, 2023. "Foundation Investment Funds for Grant-Making Foundations in Germany: Do They Facilitate Sustainable Investing?," SAGE Open, , vol. 13(4), pages 21582440231, December.
    8. Man Yiu Tsang & Tony Sit & Hoi Ying Wong, 2022. "Adaptive Robust Online Portfolio Selection," Papers 2206.01064, arXiv.org.
    9. Bin Li & Steven C. H. Hoi, 2012. "On-Line Portfolio Selection with Moving Average Reversion," Papers 1206.4626, arXiv.org.
    10. Roujia Li & Jia Liu, 2022. "Online Portfolio Selection with Long-Short Term Forecasting," SN Operations Research Forum, Springer, vol. 3(4), pages 1-15, December.
    11. Ting-Kam Leonard Wong, 2015. "Universal portfolios in stochastic portfolio theory," Papers 1510.02808, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2016.
    12. Yong Zhang & Xingyu Yang, 2017. "Online Portfolio Selection Strategy Based on Combining Experts’ Advice," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 50(1), pages 141-159, June.
    13. Xiaoling Yu & Kaitian Xiao, 2022. "Does ESG Performance Affect Firm Value? Evidence from a New ESG-Scoring Approach for Chinese Enterprises," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(24), pages 1-40, December.
    14. Özge Sahin & Karoline Bax & Claudia Czado & Sandra Paterlini, 2022. "Environmental, Social, Governance scores and the Missing pillar—Why does missing information matter?," Corporate Social Responsibility and Environmental Management, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 29(5), pages 1782-1798, September.
    15. Davide Lauria & W. Brent Lindquist & Stefan Mittnik & Svetlozar T. Rachev, 2022. "ESG-Valued Portfolio Optimization and Dynamic Asset Pricing," Papers 2206.02854, arXiv.org.
    16. Vajda, István & Ottucsák, György, 2006. "Empirikus portfólióstratégiák [Empirical portfolio strategies]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(7), pages 624-640.
    17. Chu, Gang & Zhang, Wei & Sun, Guofeng & Zhang, Xiaotao, 2019. "A new online portfolio selection algorithm based on Kalman Filter and anti-correlation," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 536(C).
    18. Guy Uziel & Ran El-Yaniv, 2017. "Growth-Optimal Portfolio Selection under CVaR Constraints," Papers 1705.09800, arXiv.org.
    19. Zhong, Yannan & Xu, Weijun & Li, Hongyi & Zhong, Weiwei, 2024. "Distributed mean reversion online portfolio strategy with stock network," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 314(3), pages 1143-1158.
    20. Ottucsák György & Vajda István, 2007. "An asymptotic analysis of the mean-variance portfolio selection," Statistics & Risk Modeling, De Gruyter, vol. 25(1/2007), pages 1-24, January.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jomega:v:123:y:2024:i:c:s0305048323001391. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/375/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.