IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jetheo/v214y2023ics0022053123001357.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Virus dynamics with behavioral responses

Author

Listed:
  • Dasaratha, Krishna

Abstract

Motivated by epidemics such as COVID-19, we study the spread of a contagious disease when behavior responds to the disease's prevalence. We extend the SIR epidemiological model to include endogenous meeting rates. Individuals benefit from economic activity, but activity involves interactions with potentially infected individuals. The main focus is a theoretical analysis of contagion dynamics and behavioral responses to changes in risk. We obtain a simple condition for when public-health interventions or variants of a disease will have paradoxical effects on infection rates due to risk compensation. Behavioral responses are most likely to undermine public-health interventions near the peak of severe diseases.

Suggested Citation

  • Dasaratha, Krishna, 2023. "Virus dynamics with behavioral responses," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 214(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jetheo:v:214:y:2023:i:c:s0022053123001357
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jet.2023.105739
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022053123001357
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jet.2023.105739?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Diamond, P. A. & Maskin, Eric, 1981. "An equilibrium analysis of search and breach of contract II. A non-steady state example," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 165-195, October.
    2. Dirk Krueger & Harald Uhlig & Taojun Xie, 2022. "Macroeconomic dynamics and reallocation in an epidemic: evaluating the ‘Swedish solution’," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 37(110), pages 341-398.
    3. McAdams, David & Song, Yangbo & Zou, Dihan, 2023. "Equilibrium social activity during an epidemic," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 207(C).
    4. Martin S Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo & Mathias Trabandt, 2021. "The Macroeconomics of Epidemics [Economic activity and the spread of viral diseases: Evidence from high frequency data]," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(11), pages 5149-5187.
    5. Daron Acemoglu & Victor Chernozhukov & Iván Werning & Michael D. Whinston, 2021. "Optimal Targeted Lockdowns in a Multigroup SIR Model," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 3(4), pages 487-502, December.
    6. Jeremy Greenwood & Philipp Kircher & Cezar Santos & Michèle Tertilt, 2019. "An Equilibrium Model of the African HIV/AIDS Epidemic," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 87(4), pages 1081-1113, July.
    7. Geoffard, Pierre-Yves & Philipson, Tomas, 1997. "Disease Eradication: Private versus Public Vaccination," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(1), pages 222-230, March.
    8. Michael Kremer, 1996. "Integrating Behavioral Choice into Epidemiological Models of AIDS," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 111(2), pages 549-573.
    9. Toxvaerd, F.M.O, 2020. "Equilibrium Social Distancing," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2021, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    10. John R. Birge & Ozan Candogan & Yiding Feng, 2022. "Controlling Epidemic Spread: Reducing Economic Losses with Targeted Closures," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(5), pages 3175-3195, May.
    11. Acemoglu, Daron & Malekian, Azarakhsh & Ozdaglar, Asu, 2016. "Network security and contagion," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 166(C), pages 536-585.
    12. Korinek, Anton & Bethune, Zachary, 2020. "COVID-19 Infection Externalities: Trading Off Lives vs. Livelihoods," CEPR Discussion Papers 14596, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. Fenichel, Eli P., 2013. "Economic considerations for social distancing and behavioral based policies during an epidemic," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 440-451.
    14. Peter A. Diamond & Eric Maskin, 1979. "An Equilibrium Analysis of Search and Breach of Contract, I: Steady States," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 10(1), pages 282-316, Spring.
    15. Farboodi, Maryam & Jarosch, Gregor & Shimer, Robert, 2021. "Internal and external effects of social distancing in a pandemic," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    16. Flavio Toxvaerd, 2019. "Rational Disinhibition And Externalities In Prevention," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 60(4), pages 1737-1755, November.
    17. Peltzman, Sam, 1975. "The Effects of Automobile Safety Regulation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 83(4), pages 677-725, August.
    18. David McAdams, 2020. "Nash SIR: An Economic-Epidemiological Model of Strategic Behavior During a Viral Epidemic," Papers 2006.10109, arXiv.org.
    19. Michael Kremer, 1996. "Integrating Behavioral Choice into Epidemiological Models of the AIDS Epidemic," NBER Working Papers 5428, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Talamàs, Eduard & Vohra, Rakesh, 2020. "Free and perfectly safe but only partially effective vaccines can harm everyone," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 277-289.
    21. Auld, M. Christopher, 2003. "Choices, beliefs, and infectious disease dynamics," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 361-377, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. David E. Bloom & Michael Kuhn & Klaus Prettner, 2022. "Modern Infectious Diseases: Macroeconomic Impacts and Policy Responses," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 60(1), pages 85-131, March.
    2. Carnehl, Christoph & Fukuda, Satoshi & Kos, Nenad, 2023. "Epidemics with behavior," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 207(C).
    3. Farboodi, Maryam & Jarosch, Gregor & Shimer, Robert, 2021. "Internal and external effects of social distancing in a pandemic," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    4. Joshua S. Gans, 2020. "The Economic Consequences of R̂ = 1: Towards a Workable Behavioural Epidemiological Model of Pandemics," NBER Working Papers 27632, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Krishna Dasaratha, 2020. "Virus Dynamics with Behavioral Responses," Papers 2004.14533, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2023.
    6. Goodkin-Gold, Matthew & Kremer, Michael & Snyder, Christopher M. & Williams, Heidi, 2022. "Optimal vaccine subsidies for endemic diseases," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    7. Alfaro, Laura & Faia, Ester & Lamersdorf, Nora & Saidi, Farzad, 2024. "Altruism, social interactions, and the course of a pandemic," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    8. Guimarães, Luís, 2021. "Antibody tests: They are more important than we thought," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    9. Bisin, Alberto & Moro, Andrea, 2022. "Spatial‐SIR with network structure and behavior: Lockdown rules and the Lucas critique," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 198(C), pages 370-388.
    10. Dirk Niepelt & Mart n Gonzalez-Eiras, 2020. "Optimally Controlling an Epidemic," Diskussionsschriften dp2019, Universitaet Bern, Departement Volkswirtschaft.
    11. David Berger & Kyle Herkenhoff & Chengdai Huang & Simon Mongey, 2022. "Testing and Reopening in an SEIR Model," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 43, pages 1-21, January.
    12. David Berger & Kyle Herkenhoff & Chengdai Huang & Simon Mongey, 2022. "Testing and Reopening in an SEIR Model," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 43, pages 1-21, January.
    13. Timo Boppart & Karl Harmenberg & John Hassler & Per Krusell & Jonna Olsson, 2020. "Integrated Epi-Econ Assessment," NBER Working Papers 28282, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Bradley, Jake & Ruggieri, Alessandro & Spencer, Adam Hal, 2021. "Twin Peaks: Covid-19 and the labor market," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    15. Glover, Andrew & Heathcote, Jonathan & Krueger, Dirk, 2022. "Optimal age-Based vaccination and economic mitigation policies for the second phase of the covid-19 pandemic," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    16. Brotherhood, Luiz & Kircher, Philipp & Santos, Cezar & Tertilt, Michèle, 2023. "Optimal Age-based Policies for Pandemics: An Economic Analysis of Covid-19 and Beyond," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 13295, Inter-American Development Bank.
    17. Bisin, Alberto & Moro, Andrea, 2022. "JUE insight: Learning epidemiology by doing: The empirical implications of a Spatial-SIR model with behavioral responses," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    18. Davide Bosco & Luca Portoghese, 2024. "Complementarity, Congestion and Information Design in Epidemics with Strategic Social Behaviour," DEM Working Papers Series 218, University of Pavia, Department of Economics and Management.
    19. McAdams, David & Song, Yangbo & Zou, Dihan, 2023. "Equilibrium social activity during an epidemic," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 207(C).
    20. Adriani, Fabrizio & Ladley, Dan, 2021. "Social distance, speed of containment and crowding in/out in a network model of contagion," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 190(C), pages 597-625.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Epidemics; Social distancing; Risk compensation; SIR; COVID-19;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jetheo:v:214:y:2023:i:c:s0022053123001357. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/622869 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.