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How to effectively estimate the time-varying risk spillover between crude oil and stock markets? Evidence from the expectile perspective

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  • Zhang, Yue-Jun
  • Ma, Shu-Jiao

Abstract

With the integration and financialization of world economy, massive hot money has frequently flowed between crude oil and stock markets, and has brought significant extreme risks and their spillover. For this reason, this paper develops the ARCH-Expectile model with embedded Conditional AutoRegressive structure (namely CAR-ARCHE model) and expectile-based VaR (EVaR) approach, and investigates the time-varying risk spillover between WTI futures market and US, UK, Japanese and global stock markets, respectively. The results indicate that, for one thing, the EVaR approach based on CAR-ARCHE model is more adequate than the conventional quantile-based VaR (QVaR) approach based on GED-GARCH for WTI and stock markets, which is due to the evident advantages of expectile compared to quantile. For another, the unidirectional downside risk spillover effects from WTI to the four stock markets and vice-versa are only remarkable during major events and present variations with jumps, but the bidirectional downside risk spillover effects between them are significant for each time point during the in-sample period, which indicate that the simultaneous risk spillover between WTI and stock markets are fairly pronounced.

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  • Zhang, Yue-Jun & Ma, Shu-Jiao, 2019. "How to effectively estimate the time-varying risk spillover between crude oil and stock markets? Evidence from the expectile perspective," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:84:y:2019:i:c:s0140988319303573
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2019.104562
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    CAR-ARCHE model; EVaR; Prudence level; Time-varying downside risk spillover effect;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q01 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General - - - Sustainable Development
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • O16 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment; Corporate Finance and Governance

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