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Estimating pass-through rates for the 2022 tax reduction on fuel prices in Germany

Author

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  • Dovern, Jonas
  • Frank, Johannes
  • Glas, Alexander
  • Müller, Lena Sophia
  • Perico Ortiz, Daniel

Abstract

We analyze the effectiveness of the German tax reduction on fuel prices (‘Tankrabatt’) that was introduced for three months, starting on 1 June 2022. We use the synthetic difference-in-differences estimator to compare actual retail prices of gasoline and diesel to those in a counterfactual situation without the tax reduction. For gasoline, we find that the tax reduction has been completely passed on to consumers. This result is robust to different approaches of constructing the synthetic control group. For diesel, we find evidence of at least partial pass-through, although the estimates are more sensitive to the employed specification. Moreover, the evidence suggests that pass-through rates for diesel started to decline in August while the tax reduction was still in place.

Suggested Citation

  • Dovern, Jonas & Frank, Johannes & Glas, Alexander & Müller, Lena Sophia & Perico Ortiz, Daniel, 2023. "Estimating pass-through rates for the 2022 tax reduction on fuel prices in Germany," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:126:y:2023:i:c:s0140988323004462
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2023.106948
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    Cited by:

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fuel; Gasoline; Diesel; Taxes; Synthetic control group;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
    • H22 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Incidence
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices

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