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How to reduce inflation: an independent central bank or a currency board? The experience of the Baltic countries

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  • de Haan, Jakob
  • Berger, Helge
  • van Fraassen, Erik

Abstract

Countries in transition often face high levels of inflation. This paper discusses two ways to reduce inflation: the creation of an independent central bank and the introduction of a currency board. It is shown that both options have advantages and disadvantages. This framework is used for a normative analysis of the policy choices of the Baltic states. It is argued that, while Estonia's currency board based on the D-mark is very much in line with the criteria for an optimal monetary regime, Lithuania's initial choice of a US-dollar based currency board is not. The peg to the SDR - which very much looks like a currency board - as (eventually) adopted by Latvia is an intermediate case. Some policy recommendations and the problem of exit strategies towards the Euro zone are discussed.
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  • de Haan, Jakob & Berger, Helge & van Fraassen, Erik, 2001. "How to reduce inflation: an independent central bank or a currency board? The experience of the Baltic countries," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 218-243, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ememar:v:2:y:2001:i:3:p:218-243
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    2. Richard Pomfret, 2003. "Trade and Exchange Rate Policies in Formerly Centrally Planned Economies," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(4), pages 585-612, April.
    3. Jean-Louis Combes & Romain Veyrune, 2004. "Effet de discipline et effet de crédibilité de l’ancrage nominal," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 75(2), pages 55-69.
    4. Masso, Jaan & Staehr, Karsten, 2005. "Inflation dynamics and nominal adjustment in the Baltic States," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 281-303, June.
    5. Lucio Vinhas de Souza, 2002. "Integrated monetary and exchange rate frameworks: are there empirical differences?," Bank of Estonia Working Papers 2002-2, Bank of Estonia, revised 12 Oct 2002.
    6. D. Masciandaro, 2019. "What Bird Is That? Central Banking And Monetary Policy In The Last Forty Years," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 19127, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    7. Andrea M Maechler & Srobona Mitra & Delisle Worrell, 2010. "Decomposing Financial Risks and Vulnerabilities in Emerging Europe," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 57(1), pages 25-60, April.
    8. Sõrg, Mart, 2004. "Estonian Monetary System: Reconstruction, Performance, and Future Prospects," Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Diskussionspapiere 11/2004, University of Greifswald, Faculty of Law and Economics.
    9. Alain Raybaut & Dominique Torre, 2004. "Unions monétaires, caisses d'émission et dollarisation : les fondements analytiques des systèmes de change « ultra-fixes »," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 75(2), pages 37-54.
    10. Masciandaro, Donato, 2022. "Independence, conservatism, and beyond: Monetary policy, central bank governance and central banker preferences (1981–2021)," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    11. M. Berlemann & Nikolay Nenovsky, 2003. "Lending of First Versus Lending of Last Resort: The Bulgarian Financial Crisis of 1996/1997," Post-Print halshs-00260241, HAL.
    12. Donato Masciandaro, 2021. "Central Bank Governance in Monetary Policy Economics (1981-2020)," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 21153, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    13. Cristina Bodea, 2014. "Fixed exchange rates, independent central banks and price stability in postcommunist countries: Conservatism and credibility," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(2), pages 185-211, July.
    14. Katsimi, Margarita, 2008. "Exchange rate strategies towards the euro-zone for new EU member states with currency boards," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 1043-1063, September.
    15. Uz, Idil & Ketenci, Natalya, 2008. "Panel analysis of the monetary approach to exchange rates: Evidence from ten new EU members and Turkey," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 57-69, March.
    16. Feng, Shu & Fu, Liang & Ho, Chun-Yu & Alex Ho, Wai-Yip, 2023. "Political stability and credibility of currency board," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    17. Donato Masciandaro, 2021. "Central Bank Governance in Monetary Policy Economics (1981-2020)," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 21153, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    18. Slavov, Slavi T., 2008. "Measuring and modeling the effects of G-3 exchange rate fluctuations on small open economies: A natural experiment," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 253-273, September.
    19. Mr. Rupert D Worrell & Andrea M. Maechler & Ms. Srobona Mitra, 2007. "Decomposing Financial Risks and Vulnerabilities in Eastern Europe," IMF Working Papers 2007/248, International Monetary Fund.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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