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The long-term economic effects of aridification

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  • Malpede, Maurizio
  • Percoco, Marco

Abstract

We conduct a disaggregated empirical analysis of the economic effects of desertification, exploiting a novel grid-cell global dataset from 1990 to 2015. Our measure of desertification combines annual variation in precipitation and potential evapotranspiration of the soil. To ensure accuracy, we employed advanced spatial econometric techniques to account for the interdependence between economic development and both time and location. Our results indicate that a one standard deviation increase in desertification is associated with a 0.6% to 0.9% decrease in GDP per capita. Based on these estimates, we have predicted the potential impact of future desertification on economic development, with a particular focus on Africa and Southeast Asia.

Suggested Citation

  • Malpede, Maurizio & Percoco, Marco, 2024. "The long-term economic effects of aridification," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolec:v:217:y:2024:i:c:s0921800923003427
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2023.108079
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Desertification; Climate Change; Economic Development;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q51 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Valuation of Environmental Effects
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • Q56 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounts and Accounting; Environmental Equity; Population Growth
    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes

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