IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/bracre/v55y2023i6s0890838923000616.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Validating implied cost of capital with realized returns by using alternative measures of cash-flow news

Author

Listed:
  • Ketterer, Simeon
  • Dionysiou, Dionysia
  • Eierle, Brigitte
  • Tsalavoutas, Ioannis

Abstract

We outline analytically that, when testing different implied cost of capital (ICC) estimates for validation by employing the Vuolteenaho (2002) framework, the cash-flow news in the validation framework should be defined in a way that considers the ICC model specific assumed sequence of future cash flows. This is based on market expectations, as proxied by analysts' forecasts. We then propose adjusting the cash-flow news proxies accordingly and implement these adjustments empirically. Consistent with the theoretical predications, the results from these tests show that ICC estimates are significantly positively related to realized returns. Informed by these findings, we employ the adjusted cash-flow news proxies in the validation framework and compare the correlation between adjusted and unadjusted for analysts' bias ICC estimates with realized returns. These tests show no difference in these correlations. This suggests that it is not the analysts' bias that weakens the validity of ICC estimates, as argued by prior literature. It is the proxies used in the validation framework that lead to the suggestion in removing analysts’ optimism from ICC estimates. Overall, our proposed alternative framework not only unlocks the gate for extensive use of the existing ICC estimates but also enables future researchers to develop more reliable and meaningful ICC estimates.

Suggested Citation

  • Ketterer, Simeon & Dionysiou, Dionysia & Eierle, Brigitte & Tsalavoutas, Ioannis, 2023. "Validating implied cost of capital with realized returns by using alternative measures of cash-flow news," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(6).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:bracre:v:55:y:2023:i:6:s0890838923000616
    DOI: 10.1016/j.bar.2023.101220
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0890838923000616
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.bar.2023.101220?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1992. "The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 427-465, June.
    2. O'brien, Patricia C., 1988. "Analysts' forecasts as earnings expectations," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 53-83, January.
    3. Tuomo Vuolteenaho, 2002. "What Drives Firm‐Level Stock Returns?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(1), pages 233-264, February.
    4. Campbell, John Y & Shiller, Robert J, 1988. " Stock Prices, Earnings, and Expected Dividends," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 43(3), pages 661-676, July.
    5. Francesco Mazzi & Paul André & Dionysia Dionysiou & Ioannis Tsalavoutas, 2017. "Compliance with goodwill-related mandatory disclosure requirements and the cost of equity capital," Accounting and Business Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(3), pages 268-312, April.
    6. Luzi Hail & Christian Leuz, 2006. "International Differences in the Cost of Equity Capital: Do Legal Institutions and Securities Regulation Matter?," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(3), pages 485-531, June.
    7. Campbell, John Y, 1991. "A Variance Decomposition for Stock Returns," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(405), pages 157-179, March.
    8. Da, Zhi & Warachka, Mitchell Craig, 2009. "Cashflow risk, systematic earnings revisions, and the cross-section of stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(3), pages 448-468, December.
    9. James Ohlson & Erik Johannesson, 2016. "Equity Value as a Function of (eps1, eps2, dps1, bvps, beta): Concepts and Realities," Abacus, Accounting Foundation, University of Sydney, vol. 52(1), pages 70-99, March.
    10. Echterling, F. & Eierle, B. & Ketterer, S., 2015. "A review of the literature on methods of computing the implied cost of capital," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 235-252.
    11. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1997. "Industry costs of equity," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 153-193, February.
    12. Mohanram, Partha & Rajgopal, Shiva, 2009. "Is PIN priced risk?," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 226-243, June.
    13. John Y. Campbell, Robert J. Shiller, 1988. "The Dividend-Price Ratio and Expectations of Future Dividends and Discount Factors," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(3), pages 195-228.
    14. Stephen H. Penman & Nir Yehuda, 2019. "A Matter of Principle: Accounting Reports Convey Both Cash-Flow News and Discount-Rate News," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 65(12), pages 5584-5602, December.
    15. Ortiz-Molina, Hernán & Phillips, Gordon M., 2014. "Real Asset Illiquidity and the Cost of Capital," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 49(1), pages 1-32, February.
    16. Ohlson, James & Gao, Zhan, 2006. "Earnings, Earnings Growth and Value," Foundations and Trends(R) in Accounting, now publishers, vol. 1(1), pages 1-70, August.
    17. Chen, Kevin C. W. & Chen, Zhihong & Wei, K. C. John, 2011. "Agency Costs of Free Cash Flow and the Effect of Shareholder Rights on the Implied Cost of Equity Capital," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 46(1), pages 171-207, February.
    18. Fama, Eugene F & MacBeth, James D, 1973. "Risk, Return, and Equilibrium: Empirical Tests," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 607-636, May-June.
    19. Hou, Kewei & van Dijk, Mathijs A. & Zhang, Yinglei, 2012. "The implied cost of capital: A new approach," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(3), pages 504-526.
    20. Peter Easton & Gary Taylor & Pervin Shroff & Theodore Sougiannis, 2002. "Using Forecasts of Earnings to Simultaneously Estimate Growth and the Rate of Return on Equity Investment," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(3), pages 657-676, June.
    21. Khimich, Natalya, 2017. "A comparison of alternative cash flow and discount rate news proxies," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 31-52.
    22. Long Chen & Xinlei Zhao, 2009. "Return Decomposition," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(12), pages 5213-5249, December.
    23. Stephen H. Penman & Theodore Sougiannis, 1998. "A Comparison of Dividend, Cash Flow, and Earnings Approaches to Equity Valuation," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 15(3), pages 343-383, September.
    24. James Claus & Jacob Thomas, 2001. "Equity Premia as Low as Three Percent? Evidence from Analysts' Earnings Forecasts for Domestic and International Stock Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(5), pages 1629-1666, October.
    25. Yu, Fang (Frank), 2008. "Analyst coverage and earnings management," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 245-271, May.
    26. Zhi Da & Qianqiu Liu & Ernst Schaumburg, 2014. "A Closer Look at the Short-Term Return Reversal," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 60(3), pages 658-674, March.
    27. Elzahar, Hany & Hussainey, Khaled & Mazzi, Francesco & Tsalavoutas, Ioannis, 2015. "Economic consequences of key performance indicators' disclosure quality," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 96-112.
    28. Stephen Penman, 2016. "Valuation: Accounting for Risk and the Expected Return," Abacus, Accounting Foundation, University of Sydney, vol. 52(1), pages 106-130, March.
    29. Peter D. Easton & Steven J. Monahan, 2016. "Review of Recent Research on Improving Earnings Forecasts and Evaluating Accounting-based Estimates of the Expected Rate of Return on Equity Capital," Abacus, Accounting Foundation, University of Sydney, vol. 52(1), pages 35-58, March.
    30. Christine A. Botosan & Marlene A. Plumlee & HE Wen, 2011. "The Relation between Expected Returns, Realized Returns, and Firm Risk Characteristics," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 28(4), pages 1085-1122, December.
    31. Long Chen & Zhi Da & Xinlei Zhao, 2013. "What Drives Stock Price Movements?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 26(4), pages 841-876.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Pengguo Wang, 2018. "Future Realized Return, Firm‐specific Risk and the Implied Expected Return," Abacus, Accounting Foundation, University of Sydney, vol. 54(1), pages 105-132, March.
    2. Echterling, F. & Eierle, B. & Ketterer, S., 2015. "A review of the literature on methods of computing the implied cost of capital," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 235-252.
    3. Mao, Mike Qinghao & Wei, K.C. John, 2014. "Price and earnings momentum: An explanation using return decomposition," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 332-351.
    4. Richardson, Scott & Tuna, Irem & Wysocki, Peter, 2010. "Accounting anomalies and fundamental analysis: A review of recent research advances," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2-3), pages 410-454, December.
    5. Mike Qinghao Mao & K. C. John Wei, 2016. "Cash-Flow News and the Investment Effect in the Cross Section of Stock Returns," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 62(9), pages 2504-2519, September.
    6. Wu, Ming & Ohk, Kiyool & Ko, Kwangsoo, 2019. "Are cash-flow betas really bad? Evidence from the Greater Chinese stock markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 58-68.
    7. Jan A. Kempkes & Francesco Suprano & Andreas Wömpener, 2023. "An empirical evaluation of dynamic approaches for estimating firms’ expected cost of equity capital," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 58(4), pages 859-886, November.
    8. Khimich, Natalya, 2017. "A comparison of alternative cash flow and discount rate news proxies," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 31-52.
    9. Schreder, Max, 2018. "Idiosyncratic information and the cost of equity capital: A meta-analytic review of the literature," Journal of Accounting Literature, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 142-172.
    10. Kartick Gupta, 2018. "Environmental Sustainability and Implied Cost of Equity: International Evidence," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 147(2), pages 343-365, January.
    11. Mohsen Jafarian & Fauzias Mat Nor & Izani Ibrahim, 2018. "The Relative Importance of Cash Flow News and Discount Rate News at Driving Stock Price Change," Capital Markets Review, Malaysian Finance Association, vol. 26(1), pages 56-72.
    12. David Schröder, 2020. "The role of market efficiency on implied cost of capital estimates: an international perspective," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 16(4), pages 463-499, December.
    13. Atif Ellahie, 2021. "Earnings beta," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 26(1), pages 81-122, March.
    14. Jeffrey L. Callen & Matthew R. Lyle, 2020. "The term structure of implied costs of equity capital," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 25(1), pages 342-404, March.
    15. Hou, Kewei & van Dijk, Mathijs A. & Zhang, Yinglei, 2012. "The implied cost of capital: A new approach," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(3), pages 504-526.
    16. Alexander P. Paton & Damien Cannavan & Stephen Gray & Khoa Hoang, 2020. "Analyst versus model‐based earnings forecasts: implied cost of capital applications," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 60(4), pages 4061-4092, December.
    17. Terry Shevlin, 2013. "Some personal observations on the debate on the link between financial reporting quality and the cost of equity capital," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 38(3), pages 447-473, December.
    18. Rjiba, Hatem & Saadi, Samir & Boubaker, Sabri & Ding, Xiaoya (Sara), 2021. "Annual report readability and the cost of equity capital," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    19. Barth, Mary E. & Konchitchki, Yaniv & Landsman, Wayne R., 2013. "Cost of capital and earnings transparency," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 206-224.
    20. Botshekan, Mahmoud & Kraeussl, Roman & Lucas, Andre, 2012. "Cash Flow and Discount Rate Risk in Up and Down Markets: What Is Actually Priced?," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 47(6), pages 1279-1301, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Expected returns; Realized returns; Cash-flow news; Implied cost of capital; ICC;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • M41 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Accounting - - - Accounting
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G31 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Capital Budgeting; Fixed Investment and Inventory Studies
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:bracre:v:55:y:2023:i:6:s0890838923000616. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/the-british-accounting-review .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.