Le changement commercial dans les villes petites et moyennes françaises. Formes et processus à l’œuvre de 2009 à 2019

The fight against the decline, especially in commercial terms, of small and medium-sized town centers lies at the core of the Action C?ur de Ville and Petites Villes de Demain policies. This article demonstrates that the commercial decline is not as pervasive as it may initially appear. By utilizing the open data from the Base Permanente des Equipements, the dynamics of a selected range of ?city-center? businesses (such as bakeries, butchers, pharmacies, hair salons, clothing stores, furniture stores, and appliance stores) in small and medium-sized urban areas between 2009 and 2019 (747, including 545 multi-municipal areas) have been quantified. Some businesses, such as hair salons, show an increase and spatial diffusion, while others, like appliance stores, exhibit a decrease in numbers and territorial contraction within small and medium-sized towns. The dynamics of other types of businesses are more intricate and characterized by significant variability. A multiple regression model is subsequently implemented, encompassing four explanatory factors related to demographic dynamics, business competition dynamics, daily mobility, and city center vulnerabilities. The model demonstrates a high explanatory power for expanding businesses. However, it fails to explain the declining businesses dynamics or those exhibiting highly variable patterns from one city to another.